Texas Basketball: How long can Longhorns last in 2021 NCAA Tournament?

Evidence they can beat a No.2 seed but not a No.1

The vulnerabilities that will cost the Longhorns in the Elite Eight can be used to state the case that they would not be able to get past potential No. 2 seeds like Alabama, Illinois, or Iowa in the Sweet Sixteen. When studying the Longhorns, paying attention to their losses is just as important as paying attention to their wins, with how they lost being the most important.

The first concerning stat that will prevent them from upsetting at No. 1 seed, is their free-throw percentage. The Longhorns are successful on 67 percent of their attempts from the foul stripe. Matt Coleman and Courtney Ramey are their best shooters at 80 percent and are two of the three players who play over twenty minutes to hit better than 78 percent.

To counter that, the Longhorns also have three players who log over twenty minutes and shoot under 67 percent. This has resulted in the Longhorns shooting less than 60 percent in four of their six losses, while they only have one conference win while shooting under 60 percent from the line.

In addition, if you take the Longhorns’ five best shooting games from behind the three-point arc, three of those games are losses. Not only were their percentages season bests, but one was their season-high of fourteen made three-pointers and one of their two games when they connected on thirteen three-pointers. This is an example of how the Longhorns can diversify their scoring and having to rely on the three-point shot, even when being successful,  is not their only avenue to success.