SoCon Basketball: 2021 Conference Tournament preview and predictions

Teams to watch

Favorite: UNC Greensboro

The UNC Greensboro Spartans have taken the number one seed in the Southern Tournament with a 13-5 conference record. UNC Greensboro defeated last year’s regular-season and tournament champion for their first regular-season conference championship since 2018 and their third overall Southern Conference championship.

UNCG, in a very weak Southern Conference, lost five games in conference including games to East Tennessee State University, Wofford, Furman, and Virginia Military Institute. UNCG could face either Citadel or Western Carolina in their quarterfinals matchup on March 6th.  UNCG won both of their contests against Citadel handily with UNCG winning by 14 points and 19 points respectively.

UNCG did not face Western Carolina until late in the season and wound up splitting the series with the Catamounts. In their first contest, UNCG won by 19 points but two nights later the Catamounts exacted revenge with a 1-point loss. That loss has to stick with UNCG as they look ahead towards their first opponent.

Top Contender: Wofford

Despite being the two seed, Wofford still retains the title as the biggest threat to the favorite. Wofford ended their season on a three-game win streak with wins against Citadel, Western Carolina, and Furman. Previously, Wofford beat UNC Greensboro in their second game of a back-to-back. The Terriers lost their first contest against UNC Greensboro by 9 points but returned three days later for a low-scoring, three-point win.

Wofford is led by four-year starting guard Storm Murphy. Murphy has excelled as a three-point shooter his entire career with the Terriers and, this year has shown his development as a point guard with improving assist numbers. Murphy is a career 41.9% 3-point shooter and despite his season numbers being below career numbers, Murphy has taken almost three more shots beyond the arc this year compared to last which would explain a slight dip in success.

One year ago, Murphy was taking 4.4 3-point attempts per game. New year, new me; Murphy is up to 7.1 attempts per game which lands him in the conference top-10 for 3-point field goals and 3-point field goal attempts. Murphy will be the key to Wofford’s success against any of their conference foes.

Dark Horse: Virginia Military Institute

Despite being the six seed, Virginia Military Institute is a very dangerous team and their first-round opponent, Furman, knows this all too well. The Keydetes have beaten each of the top two teams at least once behind a very strong offense. Most recently, VMI beat UNC Greensboro in mid-February by 11 points; a loss that UNC Greensboro will not forget.

VMI’s team ORtg (109.9) ranks 44th in the nation and is accompanied by 80.5 points per game (22nd best in the nation). Senior guard Greg Parham is the leader of the Keydetes offense. At 18.6 points per game, Parham is third in the Southern Conference. Parham likes to have the ball in his hands and he likes to shoot (top 10 in field goal attempts and three-point attempts).

Fortunately, he is also an effective shooter. Parham’s 52% field goal percentage from 2-point range ranks 17th in the Southern Conference. One issue with Parham that must not come to fruition during the conference tournament is his penchant to throw up a clunker. Despite averaging 18 points per game, Parham has had games with point totals of 12, 13, 9, 4, and 8 throughout the season.

The guard randomly disappears at times for the Keydetes but when he is engaged and effective, VMI is a different team with the ability to beat anybody at any point in the Southern Conference.