Big Ten Basketball: 2021 conference tournament preview and predictions
Quarter-Finals
(9) Michigan State versus (1) Michigan
Nothing hurt Michigan State’s chances of an upset victory versus Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament more than their 70-64 victory over Michigan on senior night. Granted, it was a victory the Spartans needed as the victory bumped them up five spots in the NET to No. 67, but it also caused the Wolverines to fall from No. 2 to No. 3, one spot ahead of Big Ten rival Illinois. Not only did the Wolverines lose a spot in the NET, but they may also have lost senior guard Eli Brooks.
The Spartans have way more to gain from moving on to the Big Ten semifinals, as a victory will cement their inclusion into the NCAA Tournament, yet Coach Howard and the Wolverines may need this victory as well. Coach Howard, while secure in making the tournament, could still see a scenario arise where they lose in the quarter-finals and No. 6 in the NET Iowa defeats No. 4 in the NET Illinois in the semi-finals and Iowa goes on to win the Big Ten Tournament, thus resulting in Illinois and Iowa joining Gonzaga and Baylor as No.1 seeds.
Ultimately, a coach cannot be worried about a scenario that includes three or four ‘what ifs” and Coach Howard will be more than happy to not risk injury, as every additional game is another risk. The prize the Wolverines want is a National Title, a loss to the Spartans prevents injury and at worst, gives them the top No. 2 seed, which will keep them out of Gonzaga’s and Baylor’s bracket either way. As well, Coach Izzo will put Hunter Dickenson in a screen and roll situation a lot too.
Prediction: Michigan State 68 – Michigan 61
(5) Ohio State versus (4) Purdue
Ohio State just seemed to “get it done” all season long. This is exemplified by splitting their season series with Illinois and Iowa, and by falling five points short to Michigan. The one team Ohio State has not “got it done” against has been the Purdue Boilermakers. The Buckeyes lost by two at home and by six at Purdue while having the better shooting percentage in each game plus the rebounding advantage.
How a team wins or loses is always interesting and losing those stat categories is never a good thing, yet, Purdue still managed to win. One can only assume that Ohio State will not play as well in the second game of a back-to-back, thus giving Purdue more of an advantage as opposed to just Trevion Williams in the post.
Prediction: Purdue 72 – Ohio State 61
(7) Rutgers versus (2) Illinois
Despite Rutgers improving their record to 6-0 on Dec. 20, 2020, by pulling out a 91-88 home victory against Illinois, their re-match in the Big Ten quarter-finals will be in no way as competitive. These two teams differ from those they were three months ago. Illinois finished the season going 11-1 beating their Big Ten rivals beneath them as well as Big Ten contenders. Rutgers has been unable to string two victories together since early February.
The battle of defensive first-minded centers of Myles Johnson, Kofi Cockburn will be overshadowed by the scoring of Ayo Dosunmu and Ron Harper Jr. The only team in the Big Ten to make more two-point field goals than Rutgers is Illinois. Both teams’ free throw percentage is below average as Illinois hits just 68 percent and Rutgers is at 63 percent. The missed free-throws might not be enough to keep the final score under, but will be enough to prevent Rutgers from winning two in a row.
Prediction: Illinois 79 – Rutgers 65
(6) Wisconsin versus (3) Iowa
Wisconsin is known for making it difficult for its opponents to score, Iowa is known for having an offense that is predicated upon surrounding Luka Garza with outside shooters. As seen in Iowa’s loss to Indiana when Jordan Bohannon went 0-8 from three, Joe Wesikamp going 2-7 from the arc in Iowa’s loss to Minnesota, and 1 -5 in losing to Michigan, when Iowa does not have everybody connecting from outside they lose.
The fallout from the 77-73 home victory on senior night versus Wisconsin is that Joe Weiskamp is currently using a walking boot. While Weiskamp’s season is not in jeopardy, the quarter-finals game certainly is. With Jack Nunge already being out for the season, the Iowa depth will suffer more without a healthy Weiskamp.
The additional factors of having just five days to adjust without Weiskamp and five of Iowa’s six losses coming away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena, even though Wisconsin has lost five of their last six, the quarter-finals will be a battle, and Iowa will not have enough depth to get the victory.