Big 12 Basketball: 2021 Conference Tournament preview and predictions

Quarterfinals

#1 Baylor vs. #8 Kansas State

There is no way to say this nicely: this game could very much be ugly.  These two teams have not met since January 27th, and before that, December 19th – but the Bears won both games by an average of 39.5 points, putting up 10.35 points while holding the Wildcats to just 64.0 points.  Across both games, Baylor shot 46-75 (61.3%) on two-pointers and 32-60 (53.3%) from long-range.

Kansas State is playing some of its best basketball as of late, but it will not be enough to slow down a Baylor team that is averaging 1.27 points per possession and 87.7 points in its last three games.  To put that into additional context: the Wildcats are maintaining marks, in their last three tilts, of 0.84 points per possession and 55.3 points per game.

Prediction: Baylor 98, Kansas State 63

#4 West Virginia vs. #5 Oklahoma State

When these two teams meet on Thursday, it will have been just five days since their last meeting, in what was an 85-80 win for Oklahoma State at West Virginia – without either Isaac Likekele and Cade Cunningham.  The Cowboys earned 31 points from Avery Anderson in that game, with three other players reaching double-figures – all the while dominating West Virginia inside in points in the paint, 50-30.

Replicating that performance against West Virginia is crucial, particularly when the Mountaineers get to the charity stripe as frequently as they do – they were 25-34 against Oklahoma State, after all.  But if the Cowboys can shut down both Miles McBride and Derek Culver – which they did in the last meeting, with the duo combining for 26 points but both being minus-6 in the box score – then this one should, again, go Oklahoma State’s way – especially if Cunningham and Likekele are both on board.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 79, West Virginia 72

#2 Kansas vs. #7 Oklahoma

Just days ago, this would have been Kansas’ game to lose – but the news of David McCormack’s absence makes this one all the more unpredictable.  McCormack has yet to miss a game this season, and replacing him in the starting lineup is much easier said than done.  Most likely, Mitch Lightfoot – who has recorded just one double-digit game all season – will be slotted into the lineup, as a 6-8 post.  That lack of offense is greatly worrisome, especially for a Kansas team that just put up 67 on UTEP to close out the regular season.

Limiting the Jayhawks’ production inside is crucial for Oklahoma, considering the Sooners – in their four-game losing streak – has allowed teams to shoot 54.2% on two-pointers.  During Oklahoma’s three-game winning streak that preceded those losses, that mark was just 41.7%.  With McCormack – Kansas’ deadliest inside shooter – out, that has become substantially easier for the Sooners.

Prediction: Oklahoma 72, Kansas 64

#3 Texas vs. #6 Texas Tech

Like so many of these teams, it was not that long ago that Texas Tech and Texas met, with the Red Raiders completing a season sweep of the Longhorns on February 27th, in a 68-59 romp in Lubbock.  Both teams struggled mightily from beyond the arc while scoring efficiently from the free-throw line – but where Texas Tech eked out a win was inside, making 18 two-pointers to Texas’ 10 – while dominating the Longhorns in points in the paint, 32-20.

Neither team has played necessarily stellar basketball as of late, with both teams sharing dominating wins over TCU and Iowa State.  But what could be different this time around is Texas’ ability to shut down Mac McClung, who led all scorers in the win over the Longhorns with 16 – but is coming off a game where he scored just seven points against Baylor.  What may favor Tech, however, continues to be their 2PT defense – Texas is coming off three games where they shot 54.5% – while Tech, in that same span, is holding teams to 41.5%.

Prediction: Texas Tech 66, Texas 60