Big 12 Basketball: 2021 Conference Tournament preview and predictions

Semifinals

#1 Baylor vs. #5 Oklahoma State

The Cowboys have yet to face the Bears at full strength – Cade Cunningham missed the first game back in January, while Isaac Likekele was out for the meeting last week.  Both tilts produced double-digit wins for Baylor by an average of 13 points, and Jared Butler scored 22 points in each tilt – while five other Bears reached double-digits in those games.

Finding offense, subsequently, should be no problem for Baylor – but it could be a significant issue for Oklahoma State.  In the Cowboys’ first meeting with Baylor, three players – Likekele not even being one of them – tallied double-figures.  In the last tilt, only two – Cunningham being one – notched that mark.  If Oklahoma State hopes to have a shot, they need others to step up.

But the Cowboys must also shut down Baylor inside – which is much easier said than done.  Oklahoma State is the best defensive team in the Big 12 in 3P% – but they have not been as efficient in defending inside the perimeter as of late, allowing Baylor and West Virginia to shoot 56.2% in OSU’s last two games.

Baylor will make outside shots – they are 19-46 against OSU this season, and the Bears are coming off a game where they hit 15 against Texas Tech – but the challenge of shutting down Baylor inside, all the while finding the necessary production to keep up, particularly with Cunningham and Likekele coming off of injury, might be too much for Oklahoma State.

Prediction: Baylor 84, Oklahoma State 76

#7 Oklahoma vs. #6 Texas Tech

These two teams have not met since February 1st, in an offensive struggle for both sides that yielded a 57-52 win for Texas Tech.  Before that, the Red Raiders and Sooners met back on December 22nd – in another narrow, 69-67 victory for Tech.  What is worth noting, however, is that one team was not at full health – Tech was meeting Kevin McCullar in the first tilt, while Oklahoma’s Austin Reaves was out for the second game.

Both players reached double-digits in the games they played in, with Reaves scoring 13 in the first loss and McCullar matching that in the second game.  If their returns favor anyone, it favors Oklahoma, considering the high level that he has played since missing the Tech game, maintaining averages of 20.9 points, 6.7 boards, and 4.3 assists in that span.

What is additionally concerning for Texas Tech is the inconsistency of McClung – paired with Oklahoma’s success in shutting down Kyler Edwards, who has been the Red Raiders’ best and most consistent offensive threat as of late.  Coming off four-straight double-digit games, Edwards was held to just 5 and 3 points in the two meetings against Oklahoma.  If the Sooners can do that – all the while keeping Tech off the free-throw line, which is where the Raiders won the last meeting (18-22 to OU’s 10-13, after OU outscored them from the floor, 42-41) – then Oklahoma should eke out the win this time.

Prediction: Oklahoma 65, Texas Tech 63

Championship

#1 Baylor vs. #7 Oklahoma

It has been over 60 days since the Bears and Sooners last met, with their only meeting of the season coming back on January 6th, in what was a 76-61 romp in Waco for Baylor.  That game saw both squads feature three double-digit scorers apiece – albeit, they were a bit uncharacteristic from what fans have usually seen.

Reaves led the way for Oklahoma with a game-high 19 points, while Alondes Williams (11) and Brady Manek (10) joined him.  On the other side, MaCio Teague was the lone Baylor starter to notch double-figures with 17 – but Matthew Mayer (16) and Adam Flagler (15) supplied key minutes off the bench.  For context: Oklahoma’s second-leading scorer on the season, De’Vion Harmon, was held to just four points.  Baylor’s leading scorer, Jared Butler, registered just eight points.

That, almost assuredly, will not happen again, especially considering Butler has been sensational since Baylor has looked like the Baylor of old since their COVID-19 pause.  Additionally, what may spell doom for the Sooners is their lackluster three-point defense.  Oklahoma actually tied Baylor in two-pointers made (18) and won the game from the free-throw line (13-10) – but the Bears annihilated the Sooners from beyond the arc, draining 10 bombs to Oklahoma’s four.

Oklahoma’s three-point defense has not necessarily been awful as of late, considering they have held teams to 34.9% during their four-game losing streak – but the Bears have shot 37-77 (48.1%) in their last three games.  And, even if Oklahoma was to tighten up their exterior defense, the Sooners have been throttled inside during the losing streak, allowing teams to shoot 54.2% inside the perimeter – while Baylor is maintaining that exact same mark across their last three tilts.

Almost assuredly – and, predictably – Baylor should coast to the Big 12 Championship, and another double-digit win over Oklahoma would come as no surprise.  Should this matchup happen, however, the Sooners should put up a bit more of a fight than the last time these two squads met.

Prediction: Baylor 83, Oklahoma 74