NCAA Basketball: Top 10 “Win Total” bets to avoid for 2021-22 season
By Ian Mumm
9. UCLA Bruins: Line = 31.0 Wins
The darlings of the 2021 NCAA Tournament are now heavy favorites to take home the Pac-12 regular-season title and repeat their performance in the 2022 March Madness field. After reaching the Final Four as an 11-seed play-in team, the Bruins return the entirety of their roster this season sans Chris Smith. In fact, head coach Mick Cronin added 5-star wing Peyton Watson and former Rutgers center Myles Johnson to the program this offseason improving the overall talent on this year’s squad.
As such, Vegas has placed huge expectations on the Bruins program setting the line at 31.0 wins. Public perception is likely to back this number due to recency bias and a lack of roster turnover between this season and last. The team’s non-conference schedule certainly provides a good starting point to chase this number with only a handful of difficult matchups on the slate. However, projected slugfests against Gonzaga, North Carolina and Villanova all occur on the West Coast or at home producing a favorable environment for the team to contend in these situations.
Where the season will get tricky for this group is staying consistent in conference play. Last season, the Bruins dropped 7 Pac-12 games including four in a row to end the year. Conference foes like Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, USC, and Washington State are all sleepers after losing key cogs from the tops of their lineups and have gained strong pieces to make life difficult out West. Two-thirds of the teams in the conference are expected to feature top-100 defenses this season and will keep games close and stressful for each other throughout the year.
Don’t doubt this team’s ability to make the Field of 68, but also don’t doubt the strength of this conference despite any perceived inadequacies. Hiccups are to be expected and dealing with those will make reaching 31.0 wins a touch out of reach.
Avoid Over 31.0