NCAA Basketball: 3 over/under-ranked teams in preseason AP top 25 poll
Over-ranked: Maryland
The Terrapins enter the 2021-22 season as one of the most intriguing teams in all of college basketball – one that was unexpectedly torn apart by the transfer portal and professional waters but benefitted from gaining leadership and proven production from the portal. Arguably, however, the hits to the roster, in this situation, outweigh the additions made by Mark Turgeon and his crew.
Three key pieces to Maryland‘s 17-14 season – which included a berth to the NCAA Tournament and an opening-round win over UConn – are gone, with double-digit scorer and power forward Aaron Wiggins (14.5), shooting guard Darryl Morsell (9.0 ppg), and role player Jairus Hamilton (6.5 ppg) all gone. All three departures significantly pain the Terrapins in various ways; Wiggins topped all Maryland players in percentage of minutes, possessions, and shots (per KenPom), Morsell was the 2021 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, and Hamilton was the Terps’ second-best three-point shooter (43.0%, 37-86).
The Terrapins, at the very least, do return three significant contributors – Hakim Hart was the team’s starting small forward and added 7.1 points per game, Donta Scott anchored the team inside with 11.0 points and a team-high 5.9 boards, and – most importantly – Eric Ayala opted to return to Maryland after testing the NBA Draft, having led Maryland in scoring last season with 15.1 points per game.
In lieu of Wiggins, Morsell, and Hamilton leaving and creating holes in Maryland’s roster, Turgeon was forced to find replacements on the fly – and, to his credit, found serviceable options in Rhode Island’s Fatts Russell and Georgetown’s Qudus Wahab. Both players were noteworthy cogs at their respective schools, but – despite a multitude of double-digit performances – struggled with inconsistency and leading their teams to wins.
Russell was the star point guard for the Rams, logging 17 double-digit games last season and averaging marks of 14.7 points, 4.5 assists, and 4.5 boards – but he also struggled shooting the ball (33.7% on FGs and 23.5% on 3PTs), and late-season injuries prevented Russell and his teammates from being nearly as effective, causing the Rams to lose seven of their final eight games. Wahab was better for Georgetown, with marks of 12.7 points (on 59.1% shooting) and 8.2 rebounds for a team that won the Big East Tournament – but this was all for a Hoyas squad that was left for dead prior to their Cinderella run.
Both Russell and Wahab impressed in the Terrapins’ exhibition win over Fayetteville State, having recorded 10 and 12 points, respectively – but this is a team that was never ranked once last season, returned a few players from said team while losing multiple important figures, and now added players who hardly experienced what it was like to win last season.
If both Russell and Wahab can both adopt the ability to close-out games – all the while supporting Ayala and filling the defensive gap left by Morsell – then Maryland has an opportunity to vie for an NCAA Tournament bid.
But ranking the Terrapins – especially when considering that the group they finished with last season may have been more proven and was not even ranked – is a bit of a stretch. It is noteworthy to recognize that there is a sizeable gap in votes between 19th (North Carolina, 547), 20th (Florida State, 381), and 21st (Maryland, 294), but it is easy to argue that there are a handful of teams below the Terrapins – including those only receiving votes – who are more deserving than Maryland.