NCAA Basketball: 3 over/under-ranked teams in preseason AP top 25 poll

Under-ranked: Texas Tech

Among those teams ranked underneath Maryland that have a reasonable case to be ranked is Texas Tech, who will enter a new era under former assistant coach and alumnus Mark Adams.  In his first Div. I head coaching gig since heading Texas-Pan American from 1992 to 1997, Adams has taken the reigns from Chris Beard – and will have a roster full of veteran returners and proven newcomers to boast.

The Red Raiders, unlike Memphis and Ohio State on this list, come with the caveat that they are not even ranked – instead, Texas Tech received just 17 votes, finishing 33rd in the AP Top 25, just behind Xavier and ahead of Richmond.  Coming off an 18-11 season, losing Chris Beard shortly after the Raiders’ second-round loss to Arkansas, and dealing with a slew of departures – including three starters in Mac McClung, Kyler Edwards, and Micah Peavy – makes the hesitation to rank Texas Tech understandable, but this is a team that should be considered within the top 25, nevertheless.

Even with McClung and Edwards gone, the Raiders will still return two of their four double-digit scorers – and three of their top five scorers – in Terrence Shannon, Jr. (12.9 ppg), Kevin McCullar (10.4 ppg), and Marcus Santos-Silvas (8.3 ppg and a team-high 6.4 rpg).  The return of Shannon, in particular, is crucial, considering the junior ranked second on the team in offensive rating, percentage of possessions, and percentage of shots, per KenPom.

There is a substantial question mark threatening Texas Tech’s legitimacy, at least for now, however, with Red Raider administration announcing in the past week that Shannon would be held out of competition for the foreseeable future due to an unknown situation surrounding Shannon’s testing of the professional waters over the summer – but the Raiders’ schedule should allow the team to scoop up at least six wins before this becomes a potential problem, with all six opponents ranking below 220 in the KenPom preseason ratings.

If Shannon’s eligibility is not solved by the beginning of December, then there may be cause for concern, considering showdowns with Providence and Tennessee – and a neutral duel with the number one team in the nation in Gonzaga – await Texas Tech.  But the roster reloads, carried out by Adams and his staff should keep Texas Tech afloat if Shannon is unable to return – or it could catapult the Red Raiders to the upper echelons of the Big 12 in a matter of time.

Among the influx of new Raiders is a slew of transfers who were significant contributors at their previous stops – both by way of being high-octane offensive weapons or by providing crucial scoring off the bench.  The headliner of the group is Oral Roberts’ Kevin Obanor, the star post player for a team that reached the Sweet Sixteen as the 15-seed in 2021; Obanor ranked second on the team in scoring (18.7) while pouring down 9.6 boards a game, all the while ranking 39th in the nation in 3P% (45.3%).

This is all without mentioning Hampton’s Davion Warren (who led the Pirates in scoring with 21.2 points), Winthrop’s Adonis Arms (who recorded 10.5 points off the bench for the 23-2 Eagles last season), UTEP’S Bryson Williams (who ranked second in scoring with 15.1 points and first in rebounding at 7.4 caroms), and Florida State’s Sardaar Calhoun (who averaged over 14 minutes a game off the bench and chipped in over five points per game) – all of whom should receive playing time, and are reliable fallback options if Shannon is not reinstated.

Time will tell if the optimism for Memphis, Ohio State, and Texas Tech – as well as the pessimism for UCLA, Tennessee, and Maryland – will actually pay off, but it is easy and reasonable to understand how these teams may both be over-ranked and under-ranked.  Arguably, only Gonzaga’s hold on the top spot may be the only ranking that is warranted – and Kansas decidedly has a stake in disrupting that claim.  All six teams will see their 2021-22 season start on Nov. 9th – and it is only a matter of time before their positions in the AP Poll are ultimately moved.