NCAA Basketball Roundtable: Champions Classic recap, upsets, and mid-majors

5. Predictions for top games of the week

1. BYU vs Oregon

Watson

Oregon is a team that I picked to make the Final Four. Having said that, Dana Altman’s teams always peak in March. An early-season matchup against an excellent BYU team led by Alex Barcello (20.5 ppg) gives the Ducks a chance to show off their talent early in the season.

Prediction: Oregon 74, BYU 68

Melton

BYU 65, Oregon 79 – This game could be close throughout, but a second-half Oregon run could be the difference.

Zacher

I’m high on both teams, and I’m constantly amazed at Dana Altman’s inability to struggle, as well as his ability to reload his roster every single season.  You have two of the slowest teams in the nation and two of the most efficient, both offensively and defensively.  What I think will separate these two, however, is BYU’s sluggish shooting percentages, particularly from outside (24.3%).  Oregon, meanwhile, is 37.5% from outside.  Contrarily, however, the Cougars are holding teams to 18.4% from beyond the arc in their first two games.

There’s a distinct clash of three-point shooting styles here, but I do still think Oregon will pull through offensively.

Oregon 78, BYU 70

Rosenberg

85-60 Oregon

2. Indiana vs St. John’s

Watson

This will be one of the best early-season player matchups with Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.0 ppg, 10.5 rpg) going up against St. John’s Julian Champagnie (21.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg). This is also the first real test of the Mike Woodson era at IU. The Hoosiers will show up ready to play at Assembly Hall on Wednesday.

Prediction: Indiana 75, St. John’s 70

Melton

Indiana 68, St. John’s 64 – A game that will be close, this could be the first big win of the Mike Woodson era at Indiana.

Zacher

For all the problems that came to a head for St. John’s right before the start of the season, the Johnnies have looked good in both their wins this year.  Indiana, meanwhile, struggled with Eastern Michigan before annihilating Northern Illinois.  Both teams are really intriguing teams that could either be top 25 teams or bubble teams by the end of the year.

Indiana isn’t inefficient on offense by any means, and they’re second in the nation in 2P% defense (30.3%) – but the Red Storm’s erratic style of play, the sixth-fastest in the nation, and stellar offensive marks, which includes ranking ninth nationally in 3P% (48.1%) and first in 2P% (70.0%) will most likely be too much for Indiana to handle.  The battle between Trayce Jackson-Davis and Julian Champagnie will be insane to watch, though.

St. John’s 83, Indiana 73

Rosenberg

90-87 St. Johns

3. Wichita State vs Arizona

Watson

Arizona is a team that has top 25 potential, led by sophomore Azuolas Tubelis (16.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg) in Head Coach Tommy Lloyd’s first season. Isaac Brown’s Shockers are far from a pushover, but this is a game that Arizona should win on a neutral site in Las Vegas.

Prediction: Arizona 73, Wichita State 66

Melton

Wichita State 61, Arizona 70 – Wichita State, despite winning, has struggled in two games against Jacksonville State and South Alabama. We should get the Shockers’ best showing of the season here, but it will likely not be enough against Arizona.

Zacher

I won’t sugarcoat this: Wichita State’s wins over Jacksonville State and South Alabama are not bad wins by any means, but it’s a miracle that they won both games – one by three points, the other by six.  The Shockers have looked abysmal offensively, recording sub-200 marks inside and outside the arc.

Arizona, meanwhile, has decimated Northern Arizona and UTRGV ranks within the top 115 in 3P% and 2P%, and owns the nation’s best 2P% defense, holding teams to 29.8% inside the perimeter.  This is not a great matchup for Wichita State, who have been without star Ty Etienne due to illness.  Etienne should be back and healthy in time for this game, but Arizona still should be able to claim this win.

Arizona 84, Wichita State 69

Rosenberg

93-72 Arizona

4. Villanova vs Tennessee

Watson

There is plenty of talent to go around in this game, but the matchup of Kennedy Chandler and Collin Gillespie at point guard will be must-see TV for college hoops fans. The Vols have looked impressive to start the season, but a Villanova team that took No. 2 UCLA to overtime on the road last week will be their first true test. Tennessee’s talent and depth are special.

Prediction: Tennessee 72, Villanova 70

Melton

Villanova 70, Tennessee 74 – Likely the game of the week, this game will be close, and could honestly go either way. I’ll say that Tennessee picks up a big win due to a massive performance from star freshman Kennedy Chandler.

Zacher

I’m not as sold on Tennessee as others may be, especially considering how good the Volunteers looked last season before eventually fumbling halfway into January.  Kennedy Chandler looks like a legitimate star, though, and his ability to score – particularly on the three-ball, where he’s 6-7 to start the season – is crucial if the Vols hope to knock off Villanova.

But the Wildcats looked good against UCLA, despite falling in overtime.  That’s obviously not a loss to scoff at.  This looks, for the most part, like a stereotypical Villanova squad – a core group seeing a majority of the action, paced by a slow, methodical style, and a stellar three-point shooting clip that includes going 11-24 against the Bruins.  Contrarily, they have not looked as good inside, where they’re 45.7% – but, until the Volunteers can prove to me that they are legit without eventually falling down the stretch, Villanova is the safe bet for me.

Villanova 79, Tennessee 74

Rosenberg

80-73 Tennessee

5. Purdue vs UNC

Watson

This game will feature another great player matchup with Purdue’s Zach Edey (19.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg) going head-to-head against UNC’s Armando Bacot (15.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) in the paint. The Heels’ ability to keep Jaden Ivey from going off will be the key to them staying in this game.

Prediction: Purdue 82, North Carolina 74

Melton

Purdue 76, UNC 69 – You could certainly make an argument that this game is a toss-up as well, but I’ll say Purdue picks up a big win. In addition, expect big games from Jaden Ivey and Trevion Williams in particular.

Rosenberg

82-77 Purdue

Zacher

These are two bizarrely unique teams for differing reasons – North Carolina’s first season under Hubert Davis has yielded wins, although neither of them – especially a seven-point win over Brown – have been particularly inspiring.  Purdue, meanwhile, has routed both Bellarmine and Indiana State with Trevion Williams – one of basketball’s best centers last season – coming off the bench, with Matt Painter opting to use Zach Edey.

That has yielded stellar results, obviously, and the Boilermakers own the second-best efficient offensive and a pair of top-35 clips in 2P% and 3P%.  That does not bode well for a Tar Heel team that is 268th in 2P% defense and surrendered 50 first-half points to Brown last week.

The battle inside between Armando Bacot and Edey will be intriguing, but having the pleasure to bring a weapon like Williams off the bench is almost unfair – and Purdue’s overall arsenal may be too much for UNC.

Purdue 86, UNC 80