NCAA Basketball: Dayton, Texas, Nevada, and Southern Utah headline Sunday Mailbag
By Bryan Mauro
What should we make of Dayton at this point in the season? There seems to be a huge difference between their ceiling and floor. – Jimmer Range Podcast (@JimmerRangePod)
I ranked Dayton high and had them pegged as one of the top teams in the Atlantic 10 conference. They were even ranked in my preseason top 10 for the Under the Radar Top 25 poll that I am a voter for. The Flyers are well-coached and even though they have one of the youngest rosters in NCAA basketball the roster is filled with talent and they are projected to be one of the best teams in the league.
That has played out as the Flyers have blown out their competition so far in the league, and currently sit at 4-1. They blew out Saint Bonaventure in their most recent effort. The Bonnies are one team that everyone likes to come out of the league and potentially play well into March. The Flyers’ lone loss in the league was a one-point defeat to VCU.
After that, though the Flyers have taken care of their business. It can be expected that Dayton takes off as the year goes on, they have gotten better and seem to be playing their best basketball right now. They have a chance to rack up some wins and get themselves into the tournament.
The resume for Dayton is one that is going to be looked at closely come selection Sunday. The Flyers currently have 2 Quad 1 wins over Kansas and Belmont which were both on a neutral court. They do have a quad 1 loss to SMU. They couple those Quad 1 games with 3 quad 2 wins. Those wins are against Miami on a neutral court, Virginia Tech and Saint Louis.
The Flyers also have two quad 2 losses to Ole Miss and VCU. If Miami keeps winning and Belmont keeps losing those games will replace themselves. Dayton still has three more opportunities for Quad 1 wins and if they win, they all that could put them at 5 overall which would be good enough to get them into the tournament.
The part of the resume that gives the Flyers fans some pause is the Flyers 5-3 record against Quad 4 opponents. The Flyers do have some bad losses on the ledger. They have lost to NET number 249 UMass Lowell, NET number 282 Lipscomb, and the worst loss of all is to NET number 284 Austin Peay. The Kansas win on a neutral court should offset most of these losses, and most teams can survive a bad week. However, Dayton has a good case as they seem to be playing at an extremely high level right now.
We all know that the ceiling for Dayton is a team that can beat Kansas and Miami and the floor is a team that loses to Austin Peay and UMass Lowell. Nothing against those programs but Dayton should have beat those teams. Dayton needs to avoid any other bad losses to any of the bottom feeders in the Atlantic 10. The Flyers must beat La Salle, and Fordham now especially after losing to George Mason in their last game. Any more quad 3 or 4 losses could be bad for Dayton.
Their NET ranking currently sits at 66 which is right on the cusp of where it needs to be to feel safe for the tournament. The Flyers are currently firmly on the Bubble and will control their own destiny going forward.