Duke Basketball: 2021-22 keys to beating North Carolina on the road

Keep UNC off the Free Throw Line

Duke does a good job of staying out of foul trouble for the most part, as they give up an average of only 11.3 free throws per game, and they have only allowed 20 or more free throws in three games this season, but those three games are the only three losses Duke has this season.

That being said, there is a direct correlation between the number of free throws the Blue Devils allow their opponent to take, and whether or not they win the game. If Duke wants to beat North Carolina, they HAVE to limit their fouls, and not allow the Tar Heels the chance to get free points.

However, that is easier said than done as UNC averages 19.1 free throw attempts per game, and they do a great job of drawing fouls. The Tar Heels have taken 20 or more free throws in 12 of their 22 games, and they hold a record of 9-3 in those 12 games (75% win percentage) and a record of 7-3 (70% win percentage) in the games where they don’t shoot 20 or more free throws.

What this means is that statistically speaking, North Carolina is more likely to win the games where they shoot 20 or more free throws, and when you add that with the fact that Duke is 0-3 in the games where they allow 20 free throws, and 18-0 in the games when they don’t allow 20 free throws, that number becomes very important.

In order to achieve this, Duke needs to be careful around Armando Bacot in particular, Bacot leads the Tar Heels in free throws attempted, and free throws made as he’s made 75 of the 112 free throws he’s attempted this season, while Caleb Love leads the team in free throw percentage of the players who have taken 10 or more free throws this season.

If Duke is able to play smart basketball, not let North Carolina get into the bonus, or the double-bonus, and just keep them off the free-throw line in general, they have a much better chance of avoiding an upset against the Tar Heels.