Bracketology Bubble Watch: Could WCC get more bids than the ACC?

SEC

Locks

Auburn Tigers

It should not have to be written but of course the overall number 1 team in the country is going to lock for the tournament. Auburn has earned the number 1 ranking in the country and they have been dismantling their competition. They are going to get a number 1 seed and are a huge favorite for the Final Four and for an appearance in the national final.

The NET is in the top 5,  and they have seven quad 1 wins. They have not lost since late November and they don’t look like they are going to lose any time soon. It’s going to be hard for Auburn to not end up on the 1 line in March.

Tennessee Volunteers

The Volunteers are going back to the NCAA tournament this year. I have never understood why some of their fans give Rick Barnes so much hate as he has built a consistent winner. Tennessee hasn’t gone as far in the tournament as many have thought they were going to but being an annual tournament team is a heck of an accomplishment.

The Volunteers have three quad 1 wins, beating Arizona, LSU, and North Carolina. That is three pretty good wins and two of them are against tournament teams. Tennessee also has one of the hardest schedules in the country as well. The NET is in the top 15 and Tennessee should at least make a push for the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Alabama Crimson Tide

A week ago I wrote an article about how Alabama was going to maybe miss the tournament if they don’t stop playing down to their competition. Then they went out and beat Baylor which gives them wins against Gonzaga and Baylor, which are two top 5 teams and I can guarantee that No One in the country is going to have that set of wins together.

Alabama also has wins over Houston, Miami, Tennessee, and LSU. That rounds out their six quad 1 wins. They also have losses to Davidson, Iona, Memphis and Missouri. They are still safe though with their quality wins and a NET of 23. Bet on Alabama in March at your own peril as they may make the final four or lose early in the first round.

Kentucky Wildcats

After a year hiatus during the Covid year Kentucky and head coach John Calipari are back to their old selves. Kentucky is back to playing like one of the premier programs in the country. They always have some of the top recruits in the country and they are now playing like it. Kentucky is going to get a top 16 protected seed and is a threat to win the national title.

The SEC is loaded this year so Kentucky is going to be battle-tested come March. The four quad 1 wins along with the top 10 NET puts Kentucky as a lock regardless of how they finish out the year.

LSU Tigers

How good is LSU?  They don’t defend real well and lately, their offense has been bad. However, LSU started the year out great were undefeated for two months before taking all of their losses and none of their losses are bad. The most recent loss to Ole Miss is not going to help but it won’t hurt them all that much either. The Tigers have four quad 1 wins and a top 15 NET.

They can still afford one more questionable loss before being threatened with the bubble. LSU better figure out their offense or it could be an early exit for the Tigers. They are nowhere close to the team they were in November.

On the Bubble

Arkansas Razorbacks

All of a sudden Arkansas has now won seven in a row. We all knew it was going to happen as this is what head coach Eric Musselman does. His teams take a little bit to get going but once they do, they play like one of the best teams in the country. That is what is happening right now.

Arkansas currently only has one quad 1 win, and NET in the mid 30’s which is why they find themselves on the bubble. The way they are currently playing they will be a lock status sooner than later. Arkansas is on the bubble now but they will be a participant in March.

Work to Do

Mississippi State Bulldogs

In the preseason, the Bulldogs were the team that I was sheepish on to have a great season and make a lot of noise in March. That has not panned out yet and they have had a season of beating most of the teams you are supposed to and lose to the teams you are supposed to and hope for the best in the SEC tournament.

Mississippi State has one quad 1 win over Alabama and they also have losses to Ole Miss and Minnesota. Those losses are currently keeping them off the bubble. Mississippi State has four quad 1 games in a row coming up and if they want to make the tournament they are going to need to find a way to win at least two of those games.

Florida Gators

The Gators started out the season and looked like a team that was going to be a lock for the NCAA tournament. Then the injuries started to mount for Florida and they are a team that is looking like a team that is destined for the NIT. Florida only has one quad 1 win and a NET in the low 40’s which isn’t going to get it done.

The Gators also have that terrible home loss to Texas Southern which is a quad 4 loss. That is the one loss that may keep Florida off the bubble and see them head to the NIT. If they can right the ship here at the end of the year and get some quality wins anything can happen, but it doesn’t look good for Florida.