Bracketology Bubble Watch: Could WCC get more bids than the ACC?

Big Ten

Locks

Purdue Boilermakers

Is this finally the year for Purdue to return to the final four?  This is the best team that Matt Painter has had in his time as the head coach of Boilermakers. Purdue has great wins and in the quad 1 tier. They have beaten North Carolina, Villanova, and Illinois. They do have a strange loss to Rutgers on their resume but that isn’t going to keep them out of the tournament.

The NET is in the top 10 and Purdue is in play for a 1 seed especially if they can win the Big Ten regular season, which is still also in play. Things are going to be rocking in West Lafayette for the rest of the year. Purdue is a legitimate National Title contender.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois is a lock to make the tournament this year and is currently winning the Big Ten. They have three quad 1 wins, and two quad 2 losses. The last of the quad 2 losses was a very confusing loss to Maryland who Illinois should have beaten. The Illini come at you with a lot of talent and one of the front runners for the National player of the year Kofi Cockburn.

Keep in mind that when Illinois lost their games to Marquette and Cincinnati that Kofi didn’t play against Marquette, and he just returned against the Bearcats. The committee is going to take note of that when they are seeding the teams. Who does Illinois have now in the tournament?  Illinois isn’t going to be a one seed this year but they will still be seeded fairly high as the NET is in the top 15.

Michigan State Spartans

It feels like years since Michigan State has been this good. It hasn’t been that long, but as a program when you have had as much success as Michigan State has had in their history one or two years seems like an eternity. The Spartans are back this year with their top 20 NET and top 25 strength of schedule. They have three quad 1 wins against Loyola Chicago, UConn, and Wisconsin.

Michigan State has a backloaded schedule and the majority of their quad 1 opportunities are going to happen in the next two weeks. The loss to Northwestern, which is in the quad 3 range may hurt their seeding a tad, but they should still be a top 16 protected seed in the tournament this year.

Wisconsin Badgers

I am shocked that Wisconsin is this good. They were projected to be a bottom-tier Big Ten team with the talent they lost. However, Johnny Davis is playing like the Big Ten player of the year and will be a force in the NCAA Tournament. Davis is also a player who should get some consideration for the National Player of the Year. When Wisconsin went to play in the Maui Invitational, most had not pegged them to win the whole thing but that is what they did.

They have beaten Houston, Saint Mary’s, Purdue, Marquette, Indiana, and Ohio State. They have seven quad 1 wins this year which is the most in the Big Ten. The Badgers also have a top 25 NET. With the quad 1 wins, zero losses in any other quadrant and a top 25 NET Wisconsin is going to be a very high seed in March.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State is another team that always plays their way into a high seed in the NCAA tournament but then struggles in the NCAA tournament. Ohio State lost to Oral Roberts in the NCAA tournament a season ago. The biggest concern I have is that Ohio State plays down to their competition at times.

The Buckeyes are still a lock as they have beaten everyone outside of the quad 1 games on their schedule. They have three quad 1 wins and have beaten Wisconsin, Duke, and Seton Hall. The NET is in the top 20 and will likely wind up on one of the top 4 seed lines in the tournament yet again.

On the Bubble:

Indiana Hoosiers

The Hoosiers are likely going to be in the NCAA tournament, but they may have to sweat it out come Selection Sunday. They have a good NET in the 30’s and have a great win over Purdue. Other than that, the resume is just okay. Indiana like Michigan State has a very backloaded schedule and are going to have plenty of chances to bolster their resume and find itself in the NCAA tournament. Indiana only has two quad 1 wins currently and that isn’t likely going to be good enough to get them off the bubble.

What will help them is zero quad 3 or 4 losses. Indiana is going to likely find their way into the tournament because they are better than most of the bubble teams. The Hoosiers also must avoid the losses to Northwestern, Maryland, and Minnesota remaining on their schedule.

Work to do

Iowa Hawkeyes

Full disclosure that I don’t think Iowa makes the NCAA tournament. The metrics do love them, but they have not had a great win. They have a NET of 24 but that was manipulated due to the fact they have blown out the opponents that they are better than. They have two quad one wins as they did beat Indiana and Utah State at a neutral site. Every other quad 1 opportunity they have had, so the upper tier of the league has beaten them.

Iowa has a lot of chances down the stretch to take a bad loss and they must avoid that. There are many other better teams than Iowa in the Big Ten, and the Hawkeyes are likely destined for the NIT.

Michigan Wolverines

If you have never watched Michigan play and just looked at their roster you would guess they would be a tournament team. In reality, the Wolverines likely get left out of the dance altogether and that is one thing that many did not see coming, especially considering they were one of the best teams in the country last year and arguably have a better roster this year.

The Wolverines have not played well, they have beaten no one and they don’t look too promising to beat anyone the rest of the way out. There is not a single game the rest of the regular season that Michigan can confidently say we will win that game. Going to be very interesting for the Wolverines on Selection Sunday as with their NET in the 50’s and 1 quad 1 win they will get left out.