ACC Basketball: 2022 conference tournament preview and predictions

Semifinals

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Miami

In a conference that has been a complete toss-up outside of the top seed, I somehow ended up with the top four seeds in the semifinals. Duke faces Miami in the first one, Miami upset the Blue Devils during the regular season in a 76-74 game with a very strange box score. The Hurricanes shot 25% from deep and were outrebounded by 14, but it was the 17 Duke turnovers and four players in double figures that helped lead them to the upset.

For Duke, they shot just 28% from deep and got a near triple-double from Wendell Moore, Jr. and Duke should be fighting to stay on the No. 2 seed line and need to win the title to do so. That motivation and a cleaner game should lean Duke to the final here.

Prediction: Duke 92, Miami 87

No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 North Carolina

The second semifinal sees Notre Dame taking on a hot North Carolina Tar Heel team. Notre Dame won the only meeting between the two this season, earlier in the year when North Carolina was struggling to find itself. The Fighting Irish had big games from Dane Goodwin, Blake Wesley, and Nate Laszewski, but one of the team’s best players Paul Atkinson, Jr. had just two points.

This game should feature some fireworks considering the two teams combined for 53 attempts in the first meeting. This game will be close and I think the arc may be the difference, more specifically how North Carolina does against one of the best three-point defenses in the country. I see the Tar Heels riding the big wave of momentum they ended the season with all the way into the ACC final.

Prediction: North Carolina 80, Notre Dame 75

Finals

No. 1 vs. No. 3 North Carolina

After such an unpredictable ACC season, we will be blessed with Duke vs. North Carolina for the third time, with the tournament title on the line. The two blue bloods split the season series, each getting a comfortable win on the road. The sport is better when both teams are playing well in March, and that’s what we have.

As for who wins this game, in Duke’s win, they kept Bacot and Manek off the boards, outrebounding North Carolina by 16, and when the Tar Heels won Manek matched their output by himself with 11. If UNC can hang on the boards, they’ll have a chance to win the title, but in the swan song of Krzyzewski, Duke gets the storybook ending by winning the tournament over their arch rival in a classic.

Prediction: Duke 81, North Carolina 79