Big Ten Basketball: 2022 Conference Tournament preview and predictions

Quarterfinals

1) Illinois  vs.  8) Michigan

Prior to Wisconsin losing to Nebraska and giving Illinois the opportunity to steal the No.1  seed in the tournament this portion of the bracket was primed for an upset, but with the Fighting Illini now the top seed, we should see more of what we saw in the regular season. Illinois took both regular-season games against the Wolverines, winning by 15 at home and then by eight at Crisler Arena.

The highlight matchup on the court is the one in the paint as the Wolverine’s Hunter Dickinson battles Kofi Cockburn the Illinois center. In the first game, Cockburn led all scorers with 21 points as Dickinson did not play, yet the Wolverines doubled Illinois 16-8 in second-chance points. The deciding factor was the 15 points Illinois converted from 12 turnovers to the five points Michigan converted from 13. In the second game, Cockburn went for 27 as Plummer scored 26 on 6 of 9 from beyond the arc.

With Illinois’ free-throw percentage being above 71 percent this season, the best way to beat them is to be able to draw Cockburn away from the paint and force him to move his feet on the perimeter. Dickinson’s season 17 for 54 from the arc is not enough to cause that.

Prediction: Illinois 81 – Michigan 70

4) Rutgers vs.  5) Iowa

Only four of Rutgers’ twelve Big Ten victories came away from Rutgers Atheltic Center – one of those victories was in Indiana – as Rutgers has been great at home. One of those home victories was a 48-46 win over Iowa in mid-January. In that game, Iowa shot 29 percent while Rutgers shot 31 percent.

Both coaches kept their rotation short as Head Coach Fran McCaffery played just one Hawkeye off the bench double-digit minutes as Steve Pikeill did the same with the Scarlet Knights. This quarterfinals game should have no resemblance to the Jan.19, 2022 game, with the biggest factor being Rutgers is not at home.

Prediction: Rutgers 67 – Iowa 76

2) Wisconsin vs.  7) Michigan State

The bye into the quarterfinals could not come in a better year for the Wisconsin Badgers as their leading scorer Johnny Davis left the season finale with an ankle sprain. While Head Coach Greg Gard is optimistic of Davis’ availability, the small forward’s absence would render the regular season split between Wisconsin and Michigan State moot.

Having lost to Kansas and Baylor earlier in the season, the Spartan’s trip to the Kohl Center was a late-January challenge that they overcame by a score of 86-74. Despite Johnny Davis’ 25 points, the Spartans totaled up 21 fastbreak points to the Badgers’ two, in addition to having the slight advantage in second-chance points. In the Badgers’ eight-point victory Davis led all scorers with 25 points while the Badgers limited the Spartans to nine fastbreak points. The bottom line is, Wisconsin has been getting it done all season, Michigan State has not been recently.

Steven Crowl and Christ Vogt are not the offensive threats needed to exploit the Spartans’ weakness, and Coach Gard should have been spooked by the potential Davis injury ruining the bigger plans he has for March. A win here just means another game for the Badgers where a player could get hurt.

Prediction: Wisconsin 67 – Michigan State 72

3) Purdue vs.  6) Ohio State

With the Big Ten Tournament being held in the state of Indiana, a fair amount of Purdue fans should be in attendance. The number of fans might be as important as anything else as the Boilermakers managed to squeak out an 81-78 victory at home the last time these two teams met. In that game, Purdue did what Purdue does.

They shot 48 percent from the field, outscored their opponents by seven on second-chance points and by twelve in points in the paint. Another thing Purdue did that was expected, was shoot poorly from the free-throw line by hitting less than 58 percent.

In order to beat the Boilermakers, a team has to get to the offensive end before Zach Edey or Trevion Williams gets back on defense and that is not Ohio State’s game. Not only do the Buckeyes have a slower pace of play than the Boilermakers, but their pace of play is also the second slowest in the SEC.

Prediction: Purdue 83 – Ohio State 77