Big Ten Basketball: 2022 Conference Tournament preview and predictions

Semifinals

1) Illinois vs.  5) Iowa

When Illinois defeated Iowa 74-72 this past Sunday to clinch the top seed in the Big Ten Tournament there were two important absences from the game. Iowa forward Patrick McCaffery (10.5 ppg) missed his second game within the last three and Illinois was without the services of Jacob Grandison (10.3 ppg) currently both players’ status for the tournament is unknown.

This semifinal matchup will be the third meeting between the two teams with Illinois winning on Sunday and previously getting an 87-83 win at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. In the five-point victory, Alfonso Plummer scored 21 points while the Fighting Illini won the second-chance points battle 24-11. It was, however, the free-throw line that made the difference as is usually the case in close games. Illinois connected on 24 of 28 while Iowa was successful on 13 of 19, similar to the season finale when Illinois went 14 for 18 and Iowa went 10 for 22.

Grandison is an important part of the Fighting Illini offense and Keegan Murray is the type of perimeter threat needed to occupy Cockburn, but when you cannot hit free throws you cannot win big games. Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, they made more than 76 percent of their free throws during the season.

Prediction: Illinois 78 – Iowa 81

3) Purdue vs.  7) Michigan State

Everything we have come to know about these two teams came to fruition on Feb. 26, 2022, when Michigan State hosted Purdue. The first was how the  Spartans cannot defend the paint as was demonstrated by Zach Edey scoring 25 points and contributing to the Boilermakers’ 48-28 advantage in scoring in the paint. That however was countered by Michigan State’s 19-2 advantage in fastbreak points.

The Spartans’ fastbreak was facilitated by the 17 turnovers committed by Purdue, six more than their season average. The Spartans will get some fastbreak points, but the Purdue offense is good enough to compensate for the times their rim protector is unable to get back on defense. When it comes to pace of play, the Spartans average slightly more than one possession per game than Purdue.

With it being very possible Michigan State does not advance past Wisconsin if Johnny Davis is healthy, there is no reason to take Michigan State in this matchup.

Prediction: Purdue 73 – Michigan State 62

Finals

3) Purdue vs.  5) Iowa

When the season began back in early November these two teams were not in similar situations. Fran McCaffery’s Iowa Hawkeyes had just 39 percent of their scoring from last season on the roster, whereas Matt Painter had almost 95 percent of the Boilermakers’ scoring returning. Now, – – four months from Opening Night – the two teams are exactly in the same place. They are in the same situation despite Purdue taking both games this season from Iowa.

The first matchup saw Purdue defend their homecourt with a 77-70 victory as Iowa was playing without leading scorer Keegan Murray. Without Murray, Iowa was able to keep the game close by piling up 20 points off of 17 Purdue turnovers. Iowa, however, was unable to beat the Purdue bigs down the court as they only managed a nine to eight edge in fastbreak points.

Purdue also won the second matchup 83-73 in Iowa despite the Hawkeyes scoring 13 more points off turnovers, had five more second-chance points, and had a five to three edge in fastbreak points. Purdue managed to get the advantage in the paint even as Zach Edey was held to six points.

If Iowa is going to win they are going to have to do a better job in transition and beat the Purdue ‘bigs’ down the court, regardless of the other stat categories. The fact that Iowa has had two chances and was unable to do so, there is little reason to believe they will do it this time.

Prediction: Purdue 75 – Iowa 70