Conference USA Basketball: 2022 conference tournament preview

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MARCH 19: The North Texas Mean Green celebrate after beating the Purdue Boilermakers 78-69 in overtime in the first round game of the 2021 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 19, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

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Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) /

Conference USA Bracketology

Unless a Conference USA team has distinguished itself as an elite mid-major, the conference champion tends to find itself around a No. 13 or No. 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament. That’s likely the expectation again this year.

North Texas is the team in most brackets projected to make the field, an obvious choice based on their place in the conference standings. They seem to inhabit a wide array of possibilities in brackets, but a commonplace for them was as a No. 12 seed, slightly ahead of the conference norm, setting the Mean Green up nicely for a potential 12-5 upset. The loss to UTEP probably drops them down a seed or two, though.

If a team other than North Texas wins the conference tournament, it’s unlikely they’ll be a No. 12 seed. A No. 13 or No. 14 seed seems more likely. If a team at .500 or below takes the conference title, a lower seed may even be possible.

The other bracket-related question is whether or not a second team from the conference could make the NCAA Tournament. A better way to ask that question: does North Texas have an at-large shot?

It’s possible, but it’s tight. Obviously, North Texas’ record and destruction of its league speaks for itself. The team is 43rd in the NET rankings and won every true road game on its schedule prior to Saturday, as well as every contest against a Quad 4 team. But the team has only one Quad 1 win this season. Frankly, the Mean Green has largely been ignored in the at-large conversation because winning the conference title has seemed like a certainty.

It’s a close call either way, but the Mean Green don’t want to rely on that. It’s hard to blame them, as any loss in the conference tournament likely won’t be of the Quad 1 variety.