SEC Basketball: 2022 Conference Tournament preview and predictions
Teams of interest
Team to beat: Kentucky
They may not have captured the SEC Regular Season Championship, but entering the SEC Tournament the Wildcats are the favorites and have been viewed as such for several weeks. Even before Head Coach John Calipari and the Wildcats missed out on the ‘Big Dance’ last season, they were apparently winners as Oscar Tshiebwe had already transferred from West Virginia. Then things got better as Sahvir Wheeler came from Georgia and Kellan Grady from Davidson.
The effectiveness of the backcourt tandem of Wheeler and TyTy Washington was on display as the Wildcats scored 36 points in the paint versus Alabama and 32 points versus Florida. The points in the paint are also aided by Tshiebwe and Keion Brooks who have contributed to turning the Wildcats not only into a top-ten rebounding team but also a top-ten scoring team.
Largest threat to Kentucky: Alabama
The Wildcats have four SEC losses on the season, so clearly LSU, Auburn, Tennessee, and Arkansas have the ability to beat them in the conference tournament, plus Auburn is going to enter the tournament as the No. 1 seed. In all of the Wildcats’ conference losses, however, their opponent had home-court advantage, an advantage nobody will have – except the Gators- as the tournament is in Tampa Florida.
The largest threat to the Wildcats will be Alabama, and not because of the old adage “it is difficult to beat a team three times in a row.” As in 2020-21, Alabama beat LSU and Mississippi State three times on their way to winning the SEC tournament.
The reason the Razorbacks are the greatest threat is the same reason they may lose their first game, they attempt 30 three-pointers a game and have the quickest Pace of Play in the SEC, four possessions more than Kentucky. UK’s fewer than twelve turnovers will limit the possessions, but if the Crimson Tide connects on ten or more three-pointers, as they have twelve times this season, there is not a lot that can be done.
Most upset potential: Mississippi
Head Coach Kermit Davis and Ole Miss will be up against Missouri on Wednesday in the No. 12 versus No. 13 match-up. Predicting a victory over the Tigers is not the hottest of takes, but it should be noted that Ole Miss has lost the match-up twice this season, including a 15 point loss at home in mid-January.
Additionally, Ole Miss may only be top five in the conference in terms of points against per game, yet it is their losses that are most telling. With leading scorer Jarkel Joiner (14.1 ppg,3.1rpg) having played in just 21 games this season, their record could have been better. Especially when the overtime losses against South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee – two of which Joiner did not play- are taken into consideration. Those three additional victories would have the Rebels battling for the tenth spot in the SEC.
Plus, they have four additional conference games that they lost by ten points or fewer. With wins versus LSU, Memphis, and Florida, Ole Miss has beaten quality teams, and with a second-round match-up with aforementioned Alabama, if Alabama does not connect on 14 of 22 three-pointers as they did on Feb. 9, 2022, the Rebels could just upset Kentucky’s biggest threat.