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Atlantic 10 Basketball: 2022 Conference Tournament preview and predictions

DAYTON, OHIO - MARCH 14: The St. Bonaventure Bonnies celebrate with the championship trophy following their 74-65 win over the Virginia Commonwealth Rams in the championship game of the Atlantic 10 Men's Basketball Tournament at UD Arena on March 14, 2021 in Dayton, Ohio. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
DAYTON, OHIO - MARCH 14: The St. Bonaventure Bonnies celebrate with the championship trophy following their 74-65 win over the Virginia Commonwealth Rams in the championship game of the Atlantic 10 Men's Basketball Tournament at UD Arena on March 14, 2021 in Dayton, Ohio. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) /
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Atlantic 10 Basketball Jaren Holmes St. Bonaventure Bonnies (Photo by Porter Binks)
Atlantic 10 Basketball Jaren Holmes St. Bonaventure Bonnies (Photo by Porter Binks) /

Teams to Watch

Team to Beat: Davidson

Not exactly a hot take here. The Wildcats are the top seed for a reason, and they handled their business throughout the regular season. But all that goes in the trash when the ball is tipped on Wednesday afternoon.

Davidson will face either Fordham or George Mason in their first game, with a potential match-up against St. Bonaventure slated for Saturday if both teams win. The path isn’t easy, but that’s the case for any team. But it’s hard to bet against the kind of offensive firepower that Bob McKillop’s team brings each night.

The Wildcats will also get a boost with Foster Loyer back in the fold. The point guard missed four games during the regular season before returning for the finale against Dayton. A week off to continue to rest his injury will be big for Davidson’s chances.

Biggest Threat: Dayton

If you’re a KenPom fan, you may have been shocked that the Flyers weren’t listed under ‘Team to Beat’. The analytics guru has Dayton as the favorite to win it all in DC, and it’s hard to disagree with the way they’ve been playing recently. UD finished off their regular season campaign with a win over Davidson, so they’ve shown they can beat the best. If there’s a ‘trendy pick’ this weekend, it’s Dayton.

That said, the Flyers have also amassed a handful of head-scratching losses, most recently to La Salle on February 26th. That’s to be expected with young teams, for sure. But is it possible they slip up again? They’ll play either George Washington or UMass in the first round, with a possible match-up with rival VCU awaiting on Saturday.

Dark Horse Team: St. Bonaventure

We’ve covered the one seed and the analytics favorite, so now it’s time for the preseason favorite. The Bonnies stumbled a little bit in late January/early February, which led to a slide into the four seed. But they seem to have rediscovered the magic that led to the A-10 Tournament title last season, so it’s fair to ask why they can’t do it again. St. Bonaventure is a veteran group with postseason experience, so they know what it takes to hoist a trophy.

The only question surrounding the Bonnies is their depth. All five starters play a vast majority of the minutes on Mark Schmidt’s squad, so one injury or foul-trouble situation could tank their chances. Barring that, however, the threat to make it back-to-back titles is very much there.