Big 12 Basketball: 2022 Conference Tournament preview and predictions

No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No 2. Baylor

The semifinals will be appointment television in the best conference in college basketball. Two stout defenses will battle it out in an Elite Eight-level contest. Texas Tech bested Baylor both times the two teams faced off this year. The 10 point win in Lubbock was an impressive win for the Red Raiders as they seemed in control of the game throughout the second half, pushing the lead early after halftime.

There are some legitimate questions about what this Red Raiders team will be like without the chaotic atmosphere they host at their home games. All eight losses Texas Tech has suffered this season have been in neutral or road environments. That could spell trouble for a team still trying to string together consistent scoring. It’s also incredibly difficult to beat a top 10 team three straight times. But until Baylor can prove they’re able to consistently shoot from outside, you have to give credit to the tenacious defense of Texas Tech.

Prediction: Texas Tech 76, Baylor 71

No. 4 Texas vs. No. 1 Kansas

Beard’s team took the Jayhawks to overtime just a Saturday ago thanks in large part to locking down Agbaji. It was the lone time the senior guard scored single-digit points in a game he’s played this season. But that plan of attack did not come without its share of drawbacks. Bigs David McCormack and Wilson combined for 39 points and the Jayhawks pulled away in the third period.

It’s been an issue for Beard’s team all season: they simply do not have the size down low to consistently limit an offensively skilled big. McCormack’s had two of his best games on the season against the Longhorns who do not have an answer to his length since the loss of Tre Mitchell. With that advantage and the likelihood that Agbaji does not replicate his poor performance, it’s entirely possible that the Jayhawks keep distance against the Longhorns and play in the title game.

Prediction: Kansas 72, Texas 64

Championship

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 3 Texas Tech

The last time these two teams played was a double-overtime slugfest that was decided by just three points when Kansas won at Phog Allen. It would be no surprise to see a similar heavyweight bout between two teams that could play in New Orleans in April. Both of these teams have wild variance in terms of how their offense and individual performers show up.

If Kevin McCullar is back and playing to his capabilities in the initial rounds of this tournament, we might see a determined Red Raiders looking to prove that they are just as potent and dangerous as the top two Big 12 teams. He had his worst performance of the season when they lost in Lawrence going 1 for 11 from the field. He’s been a scratch in four of the last six contests for Tech, so it’s worth keeping an eye out for how he looks against Iowa State.

And where Texas’ size will hinder their ability to slow down the post play of Kansas, Adams has a slew of guys he can throw to deter and bother McCormack and Wilson. The Big 12 has been the epitome of parity this year, almost as a microcosm of the college basketball landscape.

There may be not better way to cap off this turbulent year than the Red Raiders shocking the Jayhawks and making the committee’s job difficult in declaring the fourth one seed in the tournament.

Prediction: Texas Tech 74, Kansas 69