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2022 NCAA Tournament: Arizona, Villanova, and Tennessee headline South Region

By Karl Heiser

Feb 3, 2022; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Justin Kier (5) reacts on the bench after a basket during the second half against the UCLA Bruins at McKale Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Coduto-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 3, 2022; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Justin Kier (5) reacts on the bench after a basket during the second half against the UCLA Bruins at McKale Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Coduto-USA TODAY Sports /
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NCAA Tournament Houston Cougars Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
NCAA Tournament Houston Cougars Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports /

2022 NCAA Tournament South Region: Pittsburgh Pod 1

(5) Houston vs. (12) UAB

Head coach Kelvin Sampson deserves a ton of credit for keeping his Houston team on track after losing Tramon Mark and Marcus Sasser for the season. The Cougars won the AAC Tournament and sit at No. 4 in KenPom with the No. 10 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and No. 11 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The analytics seem to suggest that Houston is among the favorites to win the national title.

However, it should be noted that Houston is just 1-4 versus Quad 1 opponents, which calls into question how they will respond once they run into a legitimate contender. They’re a system play; Sampson got this team to a Final Four last season. Even without his two best players, there’s an outside chance he can work some magic.

UAB is an underrated pick to pull off an upset. The Blazers finished 27-7, winning the C-USA Tournament. Jelly Walker is a legit star who can give any team buckets. He’s on a tear right now after averaging 31 points the last three games. UAB is a top-50 KenPom team with a top-30 offense. Walker has the potential to carry UAB to a Cinderella run, and I’ll predict he gets them off to a good start.

Prediction: UAB

(4) Illinois vs. (13) Chattanooga

Chattanooga is a fairly trendy upset pick in the South Region, and it’s understandable why. The Mocs have a true star in Malachi Smith, are respectable on both sides of the ball, and finished with a 27-7 record. Illinois was last seen falling in the round of 32 against Loyola Chicago in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, and they don’t have Ayo Dosunmu this time around. However, the Fighting Illini do have very strong guard play in addition to what Kofi Cockburn provides inside. Alfonso Plummer and Jacob Grandison each shot over 40% from three-point range, and Trent Frazier is a capable guard who averaged over 12 points and 4 assists per game.

Chattanooga will use Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa to counter Cockburn down low, but there’s still a big talent gap in favor of Illinois. Don’t forget that this team got the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and played the South’s No. 1 seed Arizona very close this season, only losing by four points. The loss to Indiana to open the Big Ten Tournament obviously isn’t great, but the overall body of work is there and the ceiling for the Illini is quite high.

When Frazier and Plummer shoot as well as they are capable, Illinois is very tough to beat. I can see Chattanooga putting up a good fight and even keeping it close for a while, but the Illini pull it out in the end.

Prediction: Illinois

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