2022 NCAA Tournament: Arizona, Villanova, and Tennessee headline South Region

2022 NCAA Tournament South Region: Indianapolis Pod

(6) Colorado State vs. (11) Michigan

I know my ensuing prediction will cut against my previous assertion that Colorado State is a sleeper in the region, but I just have a weird feeling about how this game will go. Many decried Michigan’s inclusion in the field without at least getting a First Four game, which would make it all the more annoying if they were to win their opening game.

This Wolverines team is no stranger to doing annoying things. Hunter Dickinson has turned up his play over the last month, and his overall solid season has been overshadowed by Michigan’s inability to win consistently. Colorado State is very guard-heavy and don’t play interior defense all that well. If they are forced to send doubles to stop Dickinson, that will leave perimeter players wide open.

A metric I checked that did not go in Colorado State’s favor was ShotQuality’s regression model. Based on the shots they choose to take, those numbers indicate the Rams are due for a massive negative regression. Michigan is already favored by Vegas in this game. Maybe they shouldn’t even be in the tournament given their 17-14 record and mixed bag of results to end the season, but they are certainly capable of getting the win regardless.

Prediction: Michigan

(3) Tennessee vs. (14) Longwood

There aren’t many teams playing better than Tennessee right now. The SEC is a conference with an ever-growing collection of good basketball teams, and the Volunteers walked away as winners of the conference tournament. Backcourt play is the feature for this team, and that’s a good place to start given that guard play is one of the most important factors for winning in March.

Kennedy Chandler and Santiago Vescovi can each create shots for others or themselves, hitting attempts from behind the arc at over 37% each. These two sides are about equal at limiting opponent conversions from a distance, but Tennessee is adept at scheming open almost any shot they want with their active ball movement.

Longwood isn’t a household name, but they certainly deserve credit for their first trip to the Big Dance in school history. Sophomore guard Justin Hill had a great season for the Big South winners, averaging 14.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. There may have been a tournament draw where the Lancers got a little more love as an upset pick, but they have the misfortune of running into a well-oiled machine in the first round. Going with Tennessee here for the start of what could be a deep run in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.

Prediction: Tennessee