NCAA Basketball 10 Best Bets for 2022 NCAA Tournament First Round
By Greg Waddell
Purdue -15 vs. Yale
If Matt Painter could hand-pick his team’s first-round matchup, I suspect he would pick this one. Yale is just the 203rd ranked offense on KenPom, is 0-5 against Top 100 opponents this season and lost in blowout fashion to Saint Mary’s (27 points), Auburn (22 points), and Seton Hall (36 points). On top of that, Yale struggles to guard inside, where they have the 233rd ranked 2-point percentage defense in the country (KP).
Zach Edey and Trevion Williams should be licking their chops, and Jaden Ivey will be able to get downhill at will. The Boilermakers have no reason not to run Yale out of the gym, and the mediocre Yale offense just won’t be able to keep up.
USC -1.5 vs. Miami
I think the Trojans are a bit undervalued heading into this tournament – the team started the year working themselves all the way into the Top 10 in the AP Poll. On the season, USC is 25-3 against teams that aren’t Arizona or UCLA.
Miami is only 2-5 against Top 100 opponents since Feb 1. They have a great offense (17) but a bad defense (157) according to KenPom. USC is more balanced (in the 40s in both offense and defense, KP) and ultimately I like the Trojans to win out. Basketball genius Evan Miyakawa agrees with me (his predictions model has USC favored by more than three points in this matchup at evanmiya.com)