Arkansas Basketball: 3 keys to beating Gonzaga in Sweet 16 matchup
By Karl Heiser
1. Offensive Recovery
“Survive and Advance” is the name of the game in the NCAA Tournament. The important thing is just to walk away from each game with a victory. That being said, Arkansas Basketball won a very ugly game against No. 12 New Mexico State in the second round. It was their worst offensive performance of the season.
The Razorbacks shot 27% from the field and 19% from three-point range to produce a season-low 53 points. JD Notae led the way with 18 points while sophomore forward Jaylin Williams pulled down 15 rebounds.
Needless to say, the Razorbacks cannot get away with such an abysmal offensive performance against Gonzaga. Points must come quickly and easily to keep pace with a Zags offense rated No. 1 in KenPom‘s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and No. 6 in Adjusted Tempo. While Notae will be the primary catalyst for an offensive explosion, the Razorbacks will also need contributions from their three other double-digit scorers: Stanley Umude, Au’Diese Toney, and Jaylin Williams.
Per Shot Quality, Arkansas ranks 196th in Rim & 3 Rate, and their implied win percentage is 68%, which is a stark contrast to their actual win percentage of 76%. The Razorbacks’ offense has not been consistently efficient this season, often settling for midrange looks. While it is unrealistic to expect Eric Musselman to completely overhaul the offense on short notice, it would benefit Arkansas to look for more high-percentage shots.
Arkansas is a top-15 team in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The defensive effort is what carried them through the game against NMSU, but that alone won’t be enough to get past Gonzaga. Offensively, the Razorbacks must recover from a rough performance in their last game and generate points with high volume and efficiency.