NCAA Basketball: Reflecting on the upsets from 2022 NCAA Tournament

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MARCH 19: KC Ndefo #11 of the St. Peter's Peacocks celebrates with teammates after defeating the Murray State Racers 70-60 in the second round of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on March 19, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

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NCAA Basketball JD Notae Arkansas Razorbacks (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) /

Saint Peter’s and Arkansas

Arkansas over Gonzaga

Arkansas traveled to Alabama and only lost by one point, Alabama defeated Gonzaga 91-82. Simply by comparing a common opponent, it was obvious the Arkansas Razorbacks were going to defeat the Gonzaga Bulldogs 74-68 in the West Regional Final. Even though the Bulldogs had 46 percent of their scoring returning from last season, it was also 100 percent of the roster that played every game during the 2021-22 season and the Bulldogs were vulnerable.

If there is going to be an upset in the NCAA National Tournament, the chances are it is going to revolve around the number of turnovers. At initial look, turnovers do not seem to be an issue for the Bulldogs as they averaged fewer than 12 per game. Nationally that is impressive, but to put it in perspective, they ranked just sixth in conference play. When it comes to forcing turnovers, Razorbacks’ opponents commit over 14 per game, and over half of those were directly caused by the Razorbacks as they average over seven steals per game.

Once you add the fact that the Bulldogs do not discriminate when it comes to turning over the ball. Their two worst games in terms of turning over the ball were the 17 they committed versus top team Duke and top 300 team Merrimack.

Saint Peter’s over Purdue

Going into this match-up it was no secret that the Purdue Boilermakers do not attempt a lot of field goals, while their percentage is 49 percent, they attempt fewer than 57 per game. If for any reason the Boilermakers have a below-average shooting performance, putting points on the board would be difficult. Evidence of this can be taken from the season, as the Boilermakers lost just one game when they shot over 47 percent and suffered seven of their losses when not reaching their season shooting percentage.

Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, they connected on fewer than 43 percent of their field goals against the Peacocks for their sixth-worst shooting percentage, while attempting fewer field goals than their season average. Another contributing factor that was not expected, was the 5-21 the Boilermakers shot from the three-point line. The 24 percent they connected on was 14 percent worse than what they averaged on the season, more than enough difference to account for the 67-64 defeat.

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