Atlantic 10 Basketball: Biggest cases to make for 2022-23 season

The Case For …Davidson As An NCAA Tournament Dark Horse

All that the Davidson Wildcats have to replace from their A-10 Champion team is a Hall of Fame Coach, the A-10 POY, and both of their starting wings.  So why isn’t it a rebuilding year next to Lake Norman? It all starts with the return of All-Conference point guard Foster Loyer, who averaged 3.3 apg in addition to being the team’s best clutch scoring option.  The impact of Loyer’s return is significant for all of his young teammates, as his elite court vision and unselfishness will enhance the offensive performance of every single player around him.

It’s not like Loyer will have to go it alone, as he is joined by the A-10’s most offensively skilled frontcourt (outside of Dayton). That three-headed monster is led by Sam Mennenga, the other returning starter, who performed admirably while playing out of position next to a low post center in Luka Brajkovic.

Mennenga’s 8.4 ppg and 5.3 rpg should shoot up this year with a much freer paint for the occasional post-up and few free layups off of smart movement.  The wildcard for Mennenga is his jumpshot. He was 46.7% from deep last year on about one attempt for game and was 7/10 in the postseason.  Just a slight increase in willingness will turn him into a player that defenders have to respect on the perimeter.

Mennenga will be joined by four-star freshman Reed Bailey, who has sprouted three inches, up to 6’11”, since his commitment to Davidson and is so skilled that he is listed as a guard on the official team roster. A top ROY candidate, Bailey will provide off-the-dribble playmaking and stretch the floor.  Throw in Buffalo transfer David Skogman, a career 38.7% three-point shooter who had 6.3 rpg in just 24.1 mpg last season, and Davidson will be able to play five out (or four out with Mennenga alone against a single team) at all times without sacrificing on the glass.

On the wing, the Wildcats add William & Mary transfer Connor Kochera, the 2021 CAA ROY, who is a prime breakout candidate as he escapes the Tribe’s bottom 10 offense (nationally per Kenpom offensive efficiency) and looks to get back to his excellent first year stats (13.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 35.7% from three).

But everything above is moot unless Davidson holds their own on defense this year.  Last season’s team could be used as the dictionary definition of average (8th in A-10, 155th nationally per Kenpom), and getting back to the tournament hinges on at least maintaining this level if an excellent offense emerges again.  The Wildcats’ best defender Grant Huffman figures to get a big increase in minutes this year and may start next to Loyer.  He’s undersized but pesky and will be asked to irritate opposing point guards, taking some pressure off the rest of the roster while the defense comes together.

All in all, this roster is just as talented as any in the McKillop era outside of the most special teams (see Curry, Stephen, and the trio of Aldridge, Gudmundsson, and Grady) and the group’s inexperience together gives the coaching staff to mold their own system and lineup combinations as the year goes along. Matt McKillop still hasn’t been the head coach for a single game but he is staring at a season where he can immediately make his mark in the job.