NCAA Basketball: 10 bold predictions for 2022-23 season

Mar 18, 2022; Greenville, SC, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts during the during the second half against the Davidson Wildcats during the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /

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Michigan State forward Joey Hauser Malik Hall /

Michigan State will miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1997

There are three NCAA Basketball programs that have streaks of NCAA Tournament appearances longer than 20 years. One is Gonzaga at 23, with Kansas leading the way with a historic 32 years. At No. 2 is Tom Izzo and the Spartans with 24 straight. They’ve had a couple of close calls with a pair of 14-loss regular seasons in 2011 and 2017. And I believe that they’ll have an ever closer one in 2023.

There are three factors that aren’t in Michigan State’s favor this season. The first is a roster that lacks high-end depth, with no returning players that averaged double-digits in the year prior, as well as zero incoming transfers. They have a lot of solid role players such as AJ Hoggard, Tyson Walker, and Joey Hauser but if no one breaks out into a star role, they’ll need 5-6 players to play really well each night just to win games.

Speaking of games, the Spartans have a ton of quality non-conference matchups, with a number of them they’re likely to be underdogs in. It includes games versus Villanova, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Notre Dame, and Alabama in the PK85, a tournament where the Big Ten program will have three tough games. And don’t overlook mid-major foes such as Oakland and Buffalo, who have a history of giving high-major teams hard fights in November.

The Big Ten isn’t as strong on paper as they are normally compared to the past few years, which is a double-edged sword for Michigan State. While it means that there are more beatable opponents to add wins, it also means that the chances to build a resume decrease. And if they lose enough of them, the Spartans won’t be able to rely on the conference to help push them in.

There are potentially 20 losable games for the Spartans this season when you include the top eight teams in the conference. Of course, they’ll win some and if they can get a marquee non-conference victory, that’ll help them come Selection Sunday. But my concerns with the roster barely outweigh my respect for Coach Izzo. If John Calipari and Coach K can miss the Big Dance, the Hall of Fame Spartan can do the same.

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