NCAA Basketball: 2022 Battle 4 Atlantis preview, predictions

Bottom half of the bracket

Day 1 (Nov. 23)

Quarterfinals: USC vs. BYU, 5pm ET, ESPN2

This feels like the biggest toss-up among the first day games in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Both teams enter the tournament with one loss: the Cougars lost to San Diego State, while the Trojans fell to Andy Enfield’s former school, Florida Gulf Coast. USC has the best individual player to take the floor in Drew Peterson, a guard sniffing triple-double averages.

Prediction: USC 78, BYU 73

Quarterfinals: Tennessee vs. Butler, 7:30pm ET, ESPN2

Tennessee is one of the best teams in this tournament, while Butler is not. The Bulldogs are 3-1 and those three victories were routs, but none were against strong opponents. Thad Matta should get Butler back to the middle of the Big East pack, but it will take some time. This tournament will be a healthy reminder of how far they have to go.

Prediction: Tennessee 79, Butler 60

Day 2 (Nov. 24)

Semifinals: USC vs. Tennessee, 1:30pm ET, ESPN2

Tennessee’s strange blowout loss to Colorado has made their projection going forward slightly confusing, but Rick Barnes still has an elite team in Knoxville. The Vols were awful from the field in the loss to the Buffaloes, hitting only six two-point field goals for the entire game. The Trojans’ defense in the first three games was great, but the 74 points surrendered to Mount St. Mary’s suggests there’s a weakness Tennessee can expose.

Prediction: Tennessee 85, USC 75

Consolation Bracket: BYU vs. Butler, 6:30pm ET, ESPN3

This game is getting relegated to ESPN3? Harsh, but fair. The advanced metrics here actually favor Butler, which has one of the top effective field goal percentages in the nation, aided by a 63.2 percent success rate from two. The Cougars are great at preventing successful twos, but their inability to hang on to the ball (an abysmal 25.8 turnovers percentage) could be a big issue against a team that forces them well.

Prediction: Butler 70, BYU 62