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Bracketology 2023 projected field: UConn and Purdue land No. 1 seeds

By Jason Burgess

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 8: Led by committee chairman Mark Hollis (3rd from L), the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 8: Led by committee chairman Mark Hollis (3rd from L), the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) /
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New Mexico Lobos Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
New Mexico Lobos Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /

West Region (Las Vegas)

(1) Houston vs. (16) Montana State
(8) San Diego State vs . (9) Florida Atlantic
(5) West Virginia vs. (12) Kent State
(4) Arkansas vs. (13) UC-Irvine
(6) New Mexico vs. (11) USC
(3) Baylor vs. (14) James Madison
(7) Mississippi State vs. (10) Creighton
(2) UCLA vs. (15) Longwood

The Houston Cougars are my 4th No. 1 seed as they are No. 1 in the NET rankings and at 14-1 with a 6-1 record over the first two quads. They also are the top team in all three predictive metrics (BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin) and are a top-7 team in the results metrics (KPI and SOR). They are an elite team on both ends of the floor as they are 13th in offensive efficiency and the 2nd-best team on the defensive end. They are the best blocking team in the country and are a top-five team in effective field goal percentage and both two and three-point defense. A

t full strength, the Cougars can go 10 deep with guys that play at least 13 minutes per game.  The question for Houston is whether it can maintain its strength given the lack of depth in the AAC.

The other undefeated team in the country is the New Mexico Lobos at 13-0 as we begin 2023. They have played one quad 1 game thus far which was a four-point win over Saint Mary’s. The Lobos average over 80 points per game and do so with only three guys averaging double figures, led by Jamal Mashburn, Jr. and Jaelen House.

When looking at the metrics, right now it looks like the predictive metrics don’t believe in the Lobos as much as the results metrics have so far this season. New Mexico is one of four Mountain West teams that are in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies so far this season. Now that league play has begun the strength of the Mountain West should help the Lobos stay in a strong at-large position moving forward.

Now that they are at full strength the Creighton Bluejays are one of the more dangerous teams in the West Region. They are just 8-6 as of Jan. 2, but the team that had final four buzz before the season started and began the year 6-0 but hit a wall in Maui losing to Arizona sent the Bluejays into a six-game tailspin. That coincided with an illness to their center Ryan Kalkbrenner which caused him to miss three games, he has since returned and the Bluejays have gotten back on the winning track.

Creighton is currently 2-3 in quad 1 games but it will be interesting to see how the committee looks at Creighton because only one of the three losses came with Kalkbrenner on the floor. If there’s a team that could be under seeded it’s the Bluejays and you can ignore the number next to their name because Creighton has the potential to go all the way.

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