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Bracketology 2023 projected field: Alabama joins the No. 1 seeds

By Jason Burgess

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - APRIL 02: Exterior picture of the JW Marriott Hotel which has the entire bracket of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament hanging on its building on April 03, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - APRIL 02: Exterior picture of the JW Marriott Hotel which has the entire bracket of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament hanging on its building on April 03, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
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Bracketology Texas Longhorns Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
Bracketology Texas Longhorns Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports /

West Region (Las Vegas)

(1) Houston vs. (16) Liberty
(8) Saint Mary’s vs. (9) Clemson
(5) TCU vs. (12) Sam Houston State
(4) Miami vs. (13) UC-Irvine
(6) San Diego State vs. (11) Indiana
(3) Texas vs. (14) Colgate
(7) Missouri vs. (10) Iowa
(2) Arizona vs. (15) Montana State

The current No. 1 team in the country is the No. 1 team in the West region with the 17-1 Houston Cougars eyeing a trip to Las Vegas. Not only are they the No. 1 team in the country, but as of Sunday morning, they occupied that spot in the NET, KenPom, and all three predictive metrics (KenPom, BPI, and Sagarin). They have amassed a 7-1 record over the top two quadrants, with their only loss coming to fellow No. 1 seed Alabama in Early December. The only negative thus far for Houston is their 107th-ranked strength of schedule and their 10 quad 4 wins, but the Cougars have been dominant on both ends of the floor and are deserving of being on the top-seed line.

If you like dangerous non-power-6 teams in the tournament, then the West region is right up your alley. Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, and Sam Houston State all rank in the top 46 in the NET, and two others, UC-Irvine and Colgate have combined to go 11-0 in conference play coming into this week. If there is a region in this bracket that is least likely to have the seeds hold I think it would be the West, as I think the depth outside of the top-five seeds may be the strongest of any region top-to-bottom.

The other team to watch in this region is No. 5 seed TCU who have lost three games this season by a total of seven points. They are 22nd in the NET and are in the top 35 in all the metrics with a 6-2 record in quad 1 and 2 games. This is a team that gave No. 1 seed Arizona all they could handle in the second round of last year’s tournament falling in overtime. They’re a veteran team that goes 10-deep with nearly 40% of their minutes coming from the bench.

Defense is their calling card, holding opponents to 40.9% shooting and forcing them into 17 turnovers per game which leads TCU to excel in transition. Last season, that second-round game had an Elite Eight feel, now this season the Horned Frogs feel they have the team that can get there.

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