NBA Draft 2023: Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson leads January mock draft

4. Toronto Raptors – Nick Smith Jr. – Arkansas – 6’5, 185 lbs – April 2004

This hasn’t been the Raptors’ MO in terms of draft selection, but with Fred Van Vleet banged up and entering a player option, and the chunk of the Raptors forwards under contract, they snag a scoring guard here.

Smith being the first college prospect off the board would come as a surprise. He missed the first month of the season with some knee soreness, played five games, and has been out since with the same injury. It remains to be seen whether he will come back this year, making him a pretty-risky fourth pick. But, there is some positional overlap with any of the elite NCAA Forwards (Cam Whitmore, Brandon Miller, Jarrace Walker).

When healthy, Smith is an electric scoring guard that has legit shake with the ball and can pull up from deep. I question his ability to truly run an offense, but his bucket-getting should translate right away. I don’t find him to be a selfish player either. The Raptors’ mix of size and ball-handlers should help him on both ends, and if Van Vleet departs after this season or the next one, Smith can slot into that role.

5. Houston Rockets – Anthony Black – Arkansas – 6’7, 198 lbs – January 2004

It’s been another down year for the Rockets who have some interesting young pieces in Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, and Alperen Sengun, but they’ll have to make some decisions on the other young players and how important they are long-term.

Black goes off the board here at No. 5, which may be a bit of a surprise but I love this fit. Black’s raw numbers haven’t been great, but the Razorbacks’ spacing has been disastrous after losing Smith and Trevon Brazille, hampering Black’s ability to show off his passing. Black is a high-IQ player, using his size to dissect defenses with his size. He’s not overly quick with the ball but plays with a great pace. At 6’7, he should be able to guard a few spots.

Green is an incredibly high-usage player, and Smith should be getting more touches, so Black should be able to help alleviate some pressure while also putting them in spots to succeed. I worry about his ability to blow past defenders and I’m weary of his jumper, but the NBA spacing should open up passing lanes.

6. Orlando Magic – Amen Thompson – Overtime Elite – 6’7, 199 lbs – January 2003

After nailing their last two picks (Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero) and with Wendell Carter Jr.’s growth, the Magic will look to shore up their perimeter depth.

Thompson has spent a lot of time on the ball this season, showcasing his elite downhill burst and passing flare. Thompson has carved up Overtime elite defenses with the pass, mastering manipulation with his eyes and body. His leaping ability allows for some wild finishes.

Like his brother, Amen isn’t a great shooter and likely projects as worse in that area. With both twins, projecting how his play from the Overtime Elite league (which is all high school players) to the NBA is difficult. Can he adjust quickly enough to NBA size and speed to get immediate minutes? Especially for Amen, who projects to play on the ball frequently. It’s also worth noting he turns 20 in the next few weeks so it’s not like he’s playing against players his own age.

Nonetheless, the Magic already have a future All-Star in Banchero, and Wagner might hit that threshold eventually. Thompson’s passing should mesh well. The age and jump worry me, but I also think he has top-three upside if the tools are truly that special and the jumper comes along.