Bracketology 2023: 5 things to watch on the first weekend in February
No. 12 Gonzaga 19-4 (8-1) at No. 18 Saint Mary’s 20-4 (9-0)
Moraga, CA, Saturday, February 4, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN
Another Saturday night game sees No. 12 Gonzaga traveling to Moraga, CA to take on No. 18 Saint Mary’s in a battle of the WCC’s top two teams. Unlike most seasons, it is the home-standing Gaels who hold the top spot in the conference thanks to a 9-0 record, with the Bulldogs one game behind after their surprising home loss to Loyola Marymount on Jan. 19. This game is one of those fascinating dichotomies that college basketball fans love, with one of the best offensive teams in the country, Gonzaga taking on one of the best defensive teams, Saint Mary’s. It’s not only offense and defense but Gonzaga is one of the fastest teams in the sport with an adjusted tempo of 42nd in the country and Saint Mary’s is on the other end of the spectrum at 358th.
The Gaels have a resume that has the look of a potential of a No. 1 seed, but they are or will experience the problems that Gonzaga experienced in the selection process before they began a national brand. The Gaels are 6th in the NET and the predictive metrics love them as well with an average of 11 and a record of 6-2 over the top two quads with two more chances for a quad 1 win with these games against Gonzaga. The Gaels are a solid offensive team as well, ranking 66th in effective field goal percentage and shooting the three ball at 37%. Defense is where their bread is buttered as the 4th-best team in defensive efficiency, 9th in effective field goal percentage defense, and the 3rd team in the country in allowing offensive rebounds to their opponents.
Gonzaga has set their standard so high that at 17-4 with losses to Purdue, Texas, and Baylor and close conference wins over BYU, Santa Clara and San Francisco has given off the perception that this is a down year for the Bulldogs. They are an elite offensive club with a 57.5 two-point percentage and 38.2 from three-point land with an effective field goal percentage rank of 3rd that has led them to the No. 3 offensive efficiency team in the country.
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People like to focus on the losses, but Gonzaga has won three quad-1 games with neutral-site wins over Michigan State, Xavier, and Alabama. With a strength of schedule at 34th and metrics all ranked in the top 17, the perception may be down but the Bulldogs’ resume is still up and this road game against Saint Mary’s will be a good litmus test of where they are now.