Predicting a winner
Saturday night the first automatic qualifier to the NCAA Tournament will be determined in Evansville. Morehead State and Tennessee Tech await the winners of earlier games.
Morehead’s overall strength and experience in Evansville give the Eagles an edge. Spradlin’s squad won the league tournament in 2021 and Drew Thelwell and Jake Wolfe were a part of those teams. Freeman and Gross are the centerpieces of this team, but the other vets will help this team navigate the potholes of a conference championship tournament.
The 6’5 Wolfe is a lockdown defender and knockdown three-point shooter. His .394 three-point percentage is good, but during league play, he buried .453! He models Spradlin’s plan of success. Spradlin wants stout defense and patient offense.
Kenpom.com says Morehead’s average length of an offensive possession is the third longest nationally (351).
Morehead won five of the six games played against their possible opponents during their semifinal game. They should roll into the final. Ironically, this will be Morehead’s first neutral site game.
If USI reaches the semifinals, it will bring a matchup of Ohio Valley Conference’s top two three-point shooting teams. The Screaming Eagles make .382 from deep and Tech completes .366 from long distance.
Two of the league’s top big men would be on display. USI’s Polakovich and Tech’s Jaylen Sebree (15.1 ppg) is the OVC’s fifth-leading rebounder (7.1). While shorter than his Southern Indiana rival, Sebree has experience in this tournament. He was a key contributor on some of Morehead State’s recent success.
Three other Golden Eagles average double-digit scoring, with James Madison transfer Jayvis Harvey (12.3) making .458 of his shots from long range, Brett Thompson (11.9) converting .404 and Ty Perry (10.1) connecting on .374. They can hit threes.
This Ford Center game should be one of the most entertaining of the Evansville championships.
Morehead State swept Southern Indiana and split with Tennessee Tech. Saturday night the Eagles should punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Eagles or balanced, disciplined, and know how to win in Evansville.
Spradlin’s team had to win three games to win the 2021 title, knocking off SEMO, Eastern Kentucky and Belmont. They only have to win two this year, and the Eagles should cut down the nets on Saturday.
Just for the record, I accurately predicted the winner of this tournament last year.
This league is in transition and this first, post-Belmont, Murray State and Austin Peay season hasn’t been easy. Kenpom.com ranks the OVC fourth worst of 32 Division 1 conferences, but the league proved it has programs on the rise. Several made historic positive moves and OVC teams took on some of the nation’s very best teams. Big Ten, Southeastern Conference and Missouri Valley Conference teams are all over these teams’ schedules.
While Eastern Illinois lost to Illinois, the Panthers defeated Iowa. SIUE defeated Saint Louis and Longwood. Transitions aren’t easy, but the OVC survived this season and will be even better next year.