UNC Basketball: 5 keys to beating Duke in “must win” regular season finale

2) Have a positive turnover margin

Even during UNC’s three-game winning streak, there have been bouts of carelessness with the ball that are concerning. Carolina has overcome these turnover issues, but eventually, that sloppiness will catch up with them.

In the first matchup against Duke, the Heels actually won the turnover battle 12-7, one of the few times that has happened recently. It wasn’t enough. If those numbers flipped, it could be catastrophic to their chances.

Caleb Love has been playing within himself and Hubert Davis’ system recently when it comes to shot selection, but he still needs to take better care of the ball. I can’t remember the last game that he didn’t have a couple giveaways that led to an easy transition basket for the other team. The Heels need him to protect the ball.

The other side of this coin is that defensively, Carolina needs to turn Duke over and get easy points. The team’s defense has been good lately, but it’s been a more basic stay-at-home style that has forced difficult shots, but not gotten many steals that lead to transition chances. For football fans, I’d equate it more to Lovie Smith’s Cover 2 than Wink Martindale’s blitz-heavy scheme.

If the Heels can turn Duke over and get out and run, that can also help negate Lively’s effect in the halfcourt. Those easy points can get the Dean Dome crowd even wilder than it already figures to be, creating a snowball effect that could roll Duke back to Durham with another regular-season finale loss.