NCAA Basketball Best Bets: Top futures picks to make 2023 Final Four
TCU +700
TCU checks plenty of my boxes when looking for a Final Four dark horse. In a stacked Big 12, I think Jamie Dixon’s crew has flown a little bit under the radar, as they’ve battled some injuries and are 7-12 since the beginning of January. However, I think all TCU needs is to get out of the Big 12 and take on teams who aren’t familiar with them.
Although they didn’t make a deep run like Houston or Miami, TCU’s performance last March gives me confidence in what they are capable of in a tournament setting. As a No. 9 seed, the Horned Frogs blew out Seton Hall in the first round 69-42, before taking the No. 1 seeded Arizona Wildcats right down to the wire. The Horned Frogs probably should’ve won that game, as the Wildcats needed heroics from Ben Mathurin to send the game to overtime, plus the officials missed an obvious blocking foul on Mike Miles Jr. which would’ve sent him to the line in a tie game in the final seconds of regulation.
Point is, this group returns eight of their top nine guys from a team that just barely missed the second weekend. That type of continuity inspires plenty of belief in that locker room that they will be able to make a deep run this year.
This group defends at a high level, ranking 24th in defensive efficiency on KenPom. Dixon’s group is very switchable on that end of the court, which in combination with this team’s depth reminds me of Leonard Hamilton’s FSU teams from a few years back.
Offensively, they play a unique brand of basketball with a strong identity. Something I love about this TCU group is how they generate so much of their offense right around the basket. They thrive at getting downhill, passing on the interior, and attacking in transition. The Frogs are number one in the country in fastbreak points per game (18.8), leading the second-place team by over two points. Per Haslametrics, TCU gets a look at the rim on 41% of their possessions. That is the highest mark in the nation, and no other team has a mark higher than 37%. Their relentless assault on the rim leads to plenty of easy baskets.
The red flag with the Horned Frogs is their poor shooting percentage from long distance. They shoot 29.6% from deep as a team, which ranks in the bottom 15 in the nation. That obviously isn’t ideal, but they do have plenty of guys who can cash in from beyond the arc. Chuck O’Bannon Jr. drilled five in that tournament game vs Arizona, and Miles is a star guard who can stroke it from deep off the dribble.
Damion Baugh, Emmanuel Miller, JaKobe Coles, Micah Peavy, and Shahada Wells aren’t great shooters from distance, but they are capable of stepping up. Each of those guys has drilled two or more threes in multiple games this season. TCU will need to shoot better than 30% from three-point land if they want to win four straight games and reach the Final Four. If the Horned Frogs DO shoot it well in the NCAA Tournament, they are absolutely capable of beating anybody.
I’ve already mentioned plenty of names on Jamie Dixon’s roster. That’s because this is one of the deepest teams in the country. Miles is the star (17.2 points per game, but not far behind him are Baugh (13.0 points, 6.0 assists) and Miller (12.8 points). Coles, Xavier Cork, and Eddie Lampkin all take on minutes at the five-spot. Lampkin is a prime example of TCU’s depth. His 6.3 points per game rank eighth on the team, yet this is a guy that scored 20 and grabbed 14 rebounds in that NCAA Tournament loss to Arizona.
TCU is an athletic, physical, deep and relentless unit. While Miles is the star, I don’t know if any other team in the country can beat a team like Texas while getting one point from their best player. That’s impressive balance.
The Frogs displayed their ceiling when they went into an Allen Fieldhouse and smoked Kansas 83-60 back in January. There is a very short list of teams in the country that have that type of ceiling. When this team is playing their best ball, I think they are easily a top-ten team in college basketball.
I love their odds to reach the Final Four at +700.