Big 12 Basketball: 2023 conference tournament preview and predictions

First round

#8 West Virginia vs. #9 Texas Tech

Bob Huggins has the Mountaineers hitting their stride at the right time, while Texas Tech is in disarray after suspending head coach Mark Adams for racially insensitive comments. The road teams won both games in the season series, but these are two squads going in different directions, so look for West Virginia to come out on top.

West Virginia wins

#7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Oklahoma

Oklahoma State won both games this season by double digits, but they’re running on fumes at the moment. The Sooners have beaten TCU and won at Iowa State in their last three games, and something tells me they would love nothing more than to keep their rivals out of the NCAA Tournament. I think Oklahoma avenges the previous two meetings and puts Oklahoma State out of its misery.

Oklahoma wins

Quarterfinals

#4 Baylor vs. #5 Iowa State

The Cyclones own a pair of 15-point victories over the Bears, with the most recent one coming just four days ago. I still think the Bears are a better team, though. While I mentioned above that Iowa State has eight players that average double-figure minutes, Scott Drew’s team has 10, including Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, who is still being integrated into the lineup after returning from an awful knee injury in February. The potent combination of super freshman Keyonte George and senior Adam Flagler average over 31 points per game for Baylor, and I expect them to have the loss on their home court fresh on their minds when the teams meet in Kansas City.

Baylor wins

#1 Kansas vs. #8 West Virginia

The Jayhawks have the most impressive resume in the nation and a shot at the #1 overall seed on Selection Sunday. West Virginia, though, is playing well and lost by just two against Kansas a couple weeks ago. Kansas didn’t exactly look locked in as they fell to Texas to close the regular season, and I wonder if knowing they have a 1-seed locked up has dampened their motivation a bit. The Mountaineers may have more on the line as they look to finish strong heading into the tournament. Sweet shooting senior guard Erik Stephenson has scored at least 23 in five straight games, so let’s get crazy. I think he can stay hot and help West Virginia pull off the shocker.

West Virginia wins

#2 Texas vs. #10 Oklahoma

The Red River Rivalry will play out on the hardwood this time. Don’t let the seeds fool you, as these bitter rivals played two classics this year, with Texas prevailing by one in Norman, then by two in overtime in Austin. With Oklahoma having to play the night before, though, I expect a rested Texas team to continue the play that helped them defeat Kansas last week. Look for senior guard Marcus Carr to lead the way as the Longhorns move on.

Texas wins

#3 Kansas State vs. #6 TCU

How’s this for a brutal quarterfinal? Both teams have the talent to make a run to the Final Four, but one of them won’t escape the Big 12 quarters. The teams split the season series, though Kansas State’s win came during the injury absence of Mike Miles, Jr. Expect a lot of points in an up-and-down affair, but I like the Wildcats’ two-headed monster of Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson to be just enough to send K-State to the semis.

Kansas State wins

Semifinals

#4 Baylor vs. #8 West Virginia

Bet this isn’t what you had penciled in, is it? Baylor swept the season series against the Mountaineers, and I feel like Keyonta George is ready to announce himself on the national stage. Already a projected lottery pick, the athletic freshman has all the tools to carry a team deep into March. Though he injured his ankle against Texas, missed the game against Oklahoma State, and didn’t yet look 100% against Iowa State, the four days of rest before the tournament should be enough to get him back at or near full speed. I think the combination of George and Adam Flagler will be too much for a West Virginia team coming down off a season-making victory the day before.

Baylor wins

#2 Texas vs. #3 Kansas State

These two teams played the most bonkers game of the year, a “check online to make sure ESPN didn’t misprint this” shootout that ended in a 116-103 K-State victory in Austin on January 3rd. Texas, tough as they are, avenged that loss by winning in Manhattan when the teams met again a month later, by a much more sensible score of 69-66. As someone who loves a good March adrenaline rush, I hope this one is more like the first matchup. Either way though, it projects to be a great battle. I’m partial to the Wildcats in this one, who have a chance to play themselves up to the 2-line.

Kansas State wins

Finals

#4 Baylor vs. #3 Kansas State

Can you tell I love good guard play? Keyonta George and Adam Flagler will provide plenty of fireworks for the Bears in this one, while Markquis Nowell will push the tempo and provide magic of his own with forward Keyontae Johnson. The Wildcats won both meetings this year, including an overtime win in Waco. Though the players on both teams are incredible, the biggest storyline in this one may be Kansas State coach Jerome Tang and the incredible job he’s done this season.

Tang served as Scott Drew’s assistant at Baylor for 20 years before getting his own program, and the job he’s done in his first year in Manhattan has been nothing short of incredible. The Wildcats finished ninth in the Big 12 last year with an overall record of 14-17, but now appear to be one of the most dangerous teams in the country. Tang knows Drew and his former players at Baylor, and I think his Cinderella run will continue as the Wildcats win the Big 12 Tournament title.

Kansas State wins

In a conference as stacked as the Big 12, more than half a dozen teams are capable of making a run. The chalk and the smart money say Kansas, but even though the Jayhawks have lorded over the league for decades, that hasn’t always translated into conference tournament championships.

Could the Jayhawks blitz through three games and be the favorite on Selection Sunday? Absolutely. But that’s a chance I’m willing to take. With teams as talented as Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, and TCU, this tournament is wide open. Whoever wins, I wouldn’t be surprised to see multiple Big 12 teams in the Final Four in Houston.