Duke Basketball: What is the Blue Devils’ ceiling for ACC and NCAA Tournaments?

True ceiling for Duke Basketball

Scheyer’s squad ranks in the top three of the ACC in effective field goal percentage and three-point percentage defense. This team has guarded well all season, which bodes well for March.

What doesn’t bode as well are some of Duke’s offensive numbers. They’re shooting 32.9% from 3 on the season, which ranks No. 239 in the country, per KenPom. With that in mind, a driving reason behind Duke’s recent success has been an improvement from deep, shooting over 35% from 3-point range in nine of their last 13 games.

Having said that, the only Duke team in the last 25 years to shoot below 35% from 3 was in 2018-19. That team made the Elite Eight, but they also had Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish. With all due respect to Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach, this Duke team doesn’t have that level of star power.

As evidenced by wins over Xavier, Iowa, and Miami, Duke would prefer to draw more offensive-minded teams in their region of the NCAA Tournament. They have the size and athleticism and guard well enough to hang with those teams. The grind-it-out teams could pose more of a problem for a Duke team that already shoots the ball poorly and is prone to scoring droughts.

Duke is currently projected as the top No. 7 seed on Bracket Matrix and is trending toward a No. 6 seed at their current pace.

With a favorable draw from the Selection Committee and a couple of outside shots falling, Duke is more than capable of making a second weekend run in the NCAA Tournament.

Back-to-back Final Fours might be a stretch for a team that still has several question marks offensively.