Bracketology 2023: 10 teams that MUST win on Thursday to avoid NIT

SOUTH BEND, INDIANA - FEBRUARY 22: Armando Bacot #5 of the North Carolina Tar Heels high fives teammates against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first half at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center on February 22, 2023 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

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Bracketology Max Shulga #11 of the Utah State Aggies (Photo by Steve Marcus/Getty Images) /

Nevada Wolf Pack – San Jose State

The Wolf Pack are in an interesting spot, as they have a pair of Quad 3 defeats on their resume and a 7-7 record vs Quad 1/2 opponents. Back-to-back losses to both Wyoming and UNLV to end the regular season have put them squarely on the cutline and they have to avoid a loss to San Jose State.

The Spartans aren’t a bottom-feeder in the Mountain West anymore, finishing 5th in the standings. But a loss to them and losing three straight games overall would be a bad look for their standing. They have San Diego State up next in the conference tournament, a game that wouldn’t hurt them at all. A loss to San Jose State, however, would hurt Nevada.

Utah State Aggies – New Mexico

The Aggies won five straight games to end the regular season, including at home to Boise State. That gave them their first and currently, lone Quad 1 victory. The reason why they have a better shot than fellow 1-win Quad 1 team UNC is that the metrics love Utah State, having a top-25 NET ranking.

But Utah State still needs to avoid losing in the 3-6 matchup in the Mountain West Tournament, taking on a dangerous New Mexico squad. The Lobos were on the bubble at one point but a bad February has them now as a capable bid thief. A loss would put the Aggies in a tough spot, hoping that the committee would favor their metrics over a lack of big wins.

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