NCAA Tournament 2023: 3 mid-major Cinderella candidates to watch

VCU – 12 seed

One word to describe what it’s like playing against Mike Rhoades and VCU? Exhausting.

The Rams play with nearly unmatched defensive intensity and effort, making the game a 40-minute endurance contest that very few teams are up for. Chaos and havoc are their best friends, ranking sixth in the nation in forced turnover percentage, per KenPom.

VCU has a date with 5-seed Saint Mary’s in the first round that could end up being one of the lowest-scoring games in the entire tournament. Both teams rank in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom, and SMC ranks No. 359 in adjusted tempo.

Unlike the 2021-22 version of the Rams that came up just short of the NCAA Tournament, the 2022-23 version has shooting. While not on the level of a Colgate or Xavier, VCU shoots nearly 35% from 3-point range, an above-average mark nationally.

Saint Mary’s only has two wins over teams that earned at-large bids all season. They shoot the ball well but could be bothered by VCU’s energy and physicality.

The potential second-round matchup is more concerning but still winnable. Assuming UConn holds off Rick Pitino and Iona, which is not a given, the Huskies’ size could bother VCU. Having said that, VCU’s chaotic energy on the perimeter will almost certainly bother UConn.

The Rams are 22-3 since Ace Baldwin’s return from injury in early December. This version of VCU is effectively a single-digit seed capable of hanging with any team in the tournament.