NCAA Basketball: 10 most compelling 1st round 2023 NCAA Tournament matchups

Texas A&M (7) vs. Penn State (10)

If there’s any matchup in the first round where both teams should be unhappy with their draw, it’s this one. Texas A&M, which finished second in both the SEC regular season and SEC Tournament behind overall #1 Alabama, faces off against Penn State, one of the hottest teams in the country after rolling off three wins in three days against Illinois, Northwestern, and Indiana, right before nearly pulling off an epic second-half comeback against 1-seed Purdue.

This game will be a real contrast of styles. The Aggies have the second-highest free throw rate in the country, and they attack the offensive boards with abandon, ranking sixth nationally. Oddly, their defensive rebounding is far, far worse. Their defense is quite good, though, thriving on creating turnovers and setting up their offense to finish on the break.

Only one of the 363 Division I teams gets to the free throw line at a worse rate than Penn State, and only two are worse at offensive rebounding. Instead, the Nittany Lions make their mark from behind the arc, ranking 11th in the country in three-point percentage, while jacking them up at a rate higher than all but nine teams. Penn State takes incredible care of the ball, but they don’t force turnovers at all, either. Micah Shrewsberry’s team knows exactly what they do well, and they do it as much as possible, as analytically driven a college team as there is.

Analytics are nice, but what’s even better is having a player the caliber of Jalen Pickett. Penn State’s senior guard is one of college basketball’s most well-rounded players, leading the Nittany Lions in points, rebounds, assists, and steals, while shooting 51.6% from the floor. Pickett is capable of taking over the game, such as when he strafed Illinois, Minnesota, and Ohio State for 96 points in a three-game span in February.

A&M counters with a star of their own in Wade Taylor IV. Taylor is the engine that makes the Aggie-mobile go. He gets the fast break going with nearly two steals per game. He dishes four assists per contest, and he’s made one less three than his next two highest teammates combined. The 6-foot sophomore also shoots 87.5% from the line, and he’s averaged over 20.5 points in his last 11 games to lead Buzz Williams and company to the Big Dance.

If Penn State can make this a halfcourt game, their spacing and three-point shooting could be enough to win, but if Texas A&M can force turnovers and dominate the offensive glass, it will be a very different story. Coaching will play a huge role in this outcome, but ultimately this may come down to which one of Pickett vs. Taylor can embrace the big stage the most.