NCAA Tournament 2023: Top 10 most likely 2nd round upsets to happen

4. 6 Creighton over 3 Baylor

If we could ignore a tough December stretch in which the Bluejays lost six straight games, a few of them without star center Ryan Kalkbrenner, then Creighton would’ve been higher than a 6-seed. We can’t ignore those games. We also can’t ignore that Creighton might have one of the most talented starting fives in the entire nation, scoring all but two of their points in a 9-point opening-round win over 11-seed NC State on Friday.

Getting the job done against Baylor would require another great performance from Kalkbrenner, who had 31 points and 7 rebounds against the Wolfpack. Let’s be serious, it’ll take more than just that against a much tougher Bears team that boasts a strong backcourt. What bit the Bluejays against NC State was shooting just 15% from beyond the arc, with starting guards Trey Alexander, Ryan Nembhard, and Baylor Scheierman combining to shoot just 2 of 15.

The Bears are a great offensive team but Creighton has the advantage on the defensive end. The issue for the Bluejays is their dependence on their starting five. Obviously, Creighton cannot afford significant foul trouble or for one of those starters to significantly struggle if they want to win against Baylor. The Bears have been a national contender for much of this season, but you can argue the same about Creighton. This is a game that’s being played way too early in the Round of 32, and the Bluejays can absolutely get the job done with another good offensive performance, making nearly 70% of their 2-pointers against the Wolfpack.