NCAA Tournament 2023: 3 “best bets” to make among Sweet 16 matchups

2. UCLA (-2) vs 3. Gonzaga  

Thursday, 9:45 ET (approx)

In one of two Sweet 16 matchups of straight chalk, Gonzaga and UCLA clash in Las Vegas on Thursday night, in a rematch of the instant classic Final Four game back in 2021.

UCLA enters this matchup after a blowout win over UNC Asheville and holding off Northwestern in a scrappy affair. Jaime Jaquez has been brilliant so far in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 20.5 points and 8.0 rebounds in the two wins. Tyger Campbell has 17 assists across the two wins, while freshman Amari Bailey has been awesome so far as well, averaging 15.5 points and 6.0 assists. Even though, a fully healthy UCLA to me was the third best team in college basketball, I just don’t feel the same level of confidence in them taking down another elite team without Jaylen Clark on floor.

Mick Cronin has done an impressive job as usual, and thus far I wouldn’t say they’ve truly felt Clark’s absence yet. But the Bruins do lack depth and scoring pop outside of the big three, and I do think that is going to be their downfall. On top of Clark’s injury, Adem Bona is dealing with a shoulder issue while David Singleton sprained his ankle Saturday night. Even if both Bona and Singleton go on Thursday, as I expect them to, they likely will be less than 100%. That on top of Clark not being on the floor opens the door for this Gonzaga team.

Mark Few’s boys just took care of back to back purple teams to get the Zags to their eighth straight Sweet 16. Grand Canyon couldn’t keep up with Gonzaga, but TCU, who was one of my favorite Final Four sleepers, posed a real challenge. The Horned Frogs can be a nightmare matchup with their depth, physicality and athleticism, but Gonzaga held strong in that second half, riding Drew Timme’s 28 point performance to victory.

After entering March Madness as the sport’s undisputed best team the last two seasons, I think Timm and the Zags are thriving under the reduced spotlight. The supporting cast of Julian Strawther, Anton Watson, Nolan Hickman, Rasir Bolton, and Malachi Smith have all leveled up their play lately as well, and honestly I think Gonzaga has UCLA smoked in terms of offensive firepower.

UCLA is an elite defensive team, but I expect Gonzaga to still be able to find success offensively. Cronin will want to slow the pace of this game down and turn it into a grit fest, which they were able to do twice against Arizona this year. Even though UCLA held Arizona to 58 and 61 points in those two matchups, they weren’t able to come up with a win either time. If Watson and others can prevent Jaquez from having a monster game, I see the Bruins having a tough time outscoring an offensive juggernaut, which this Gonzaga team still is.

With a star player on the interior and a bunch of capable guys around him who have found their groove at the right time, I have plenty of confidence in this pick.  I’m rolling with Mark Few and the Zags to pull off the upset here, as I think the more balanced team takes care of business against one that will be wishing they were at full strength.

The Pick: Gonzaga +2