NCAA Tournament 2023: 3 “best bets” to make among Sweet 16 matchups

1. Houston, (-7) vs. 5. Miami 

Friday 7:15 ET

I’m torn that two of my favorite teams in college basketball are facing off here, but I’m really excited to watch this Midwest regional semifinal. I wrote two weeks ago in my best Final Four futures piece that these were two of my favorite choices.  So of course they are playing now…

Both of these squads are looking to return to the Elite Eight after getting there last season. I definitely felt nervous about Houston with the injuries to Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead, in addition to their poor performance against No.16 Northern Kentucky. That carried over into their second round game, as the Cougars headed into halftime against Auburn trailing by ten. However, Kelvin Sampson’s crew launched a dominant second half on their way to an 81-64 victory. Watching Houston return to their elite level of play resurrected my briefly evaporated expectations that this team is extremely capable of winning a National Championship.

I have an endless list of compliments to give to this Miami team, and one of them is there composure. Coach Larranaga gives his guys supreme confidence and empowers his players with his free flowing offensive system that Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller and company thrive in. Miami’s small ball has caused fits for teams all year, and they consistently do enough on the glass and the defensive end of the floor to compensate for their lack of size.

But Miami hasn’t seen anyone that defends at level even slightly comparable to Houston other than Duke in months. There is nobody in the ACC like Houston, and a much less imposing Drake team just held the Hurricanes to 63 points in the opening round.

Before getting annihilated 47-15 in the second half vs eventual National Champion Kansas in the Elite Eight last year, Miami took a six point lead into the break. Miami stepped up and looked awesome against the best team in the nation, because their offensive talent and unique style allows them to really compete with anyone. But a Hall of Fame coach in Bill Self made the necessary adjustments at half and an elite level team with NBA athletes figured out how to exploit a crafty Miami group.

What Houston showed in that second half against Auburn was a monstrous statement to the rest of the field – it’s us and Alabama, then everybody else. Auburn couldn’t score, and Tramon Mark, arguably Houston’s fourth best player, looked unstoppable on his way to 26 points. Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead seem close to full health as well, evidenced by their performances of 22 points, and 10 and five assists.

With all that being said, I hold enough belief in this Miami team to not back down to this challenge and come out strong. Miami can really score, and I expect them to be able to force turnovers and potentially hold a halftime lead.  With Houston throwing two bodies on ball screens at Wong, and keeping Miller and Norchad Omier off the offensive glass, I do think the Hurricanes have a really tall task ahead of them. But a much worse offensive team in Auburn just scored 41 in the first half vs the Cougars, and No. 16 seed Northern Kentucky got plenty of clean looks throughout that matchup.

While I do think Houston’s relentless pursuit of rebounds and defensive intensity will lead to them pulling away in the second half, I don’t expect them to come out dominating. Miami is so steady and has feel good about getting four points in the first half for a team that seems to always find a way.

The Pick: Miami 1H +4