Everybody loves a Cinderella this time of year and with the bracket in our hands and the first weekend of March Madness coming our way, it’s the perfect time to identify the double-digit seed that could be the perfect size for that glass slipper and find themselves in the Sweet 16.
These five mid-major teams had phenomenal seasons, but the best may still be yet to come in the NCAA Tournament.
Head coach John Groce completely reimagined his roster and style of play after last year’s first-round exit in the NCAA Tournament. He upped the pace and leaned into a talented veteran backcourt of Nate and Tavari Johnson. The Zips score in waves, with a 93rd percentile offensive rating and 99th percentile bench scoring per game (according to CBBanalytics.com).
Arizona will be happy to get out and run with this plucky 13-seed from the MAC in the first round, but it may not go as well as Wildcats’ head coach Tommy Lloyd would expect. The Zips are loaded with scorers, and while they’re not going to lock many teams down on the defensive end, Groce’s squad can get red-hot from outside and find themselves in the second weekend of the tournament.
In his second year at the helm, Alan Huss has led the High Point Panthers to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history. High Point has a highly efficient offensive attack and most importantly for its first-round matchup against Purdue, gets to the rim.
Purdue desperately misses Zach Edey, but his absence is felt most on the defensive end of the floor. The Boilermakers just do not have any rim protection, which will be a problem against a High Point team that attempts 32.8% of its shots at the rim and shoots 68%. The Panthers will expose Purdue’s biggest weakness and could hand Matt Painter another first-round upset loss, this time a 13-over-4 instead of 16-over-1.
When you have a player like Donovan Dent, anything is possible in March. Richard Pitino’s New Mexico Lobos came up short against Boise State in the Mountain West Tournament semifinals but still earned a No. 10 seed and a first-round matchup against Marquette. Dent is one of the most efficient backcourt scorers in the country with a creative handle and shifty athleticism, he’s impossible to stay in front of, but if you do, he shoots over 40% from beyond the arc.
Dent will go head-to-head with Marquette’s Kam Jones in the first round, in my most highly-anticipated first-round matchup, but the player who could be the difference for the Lobos getting past the Golden Eagles and potentially past Michigan State is Nelly Junior Joseph.
Pitino’s 6-foot-11 senior center averages a double-double and is the primary reason opponents shoot just 57% and only attempt 35.5% of their shots at the rim against New Mexico. I’m taking the Lobos in the first round and if Dent and Junior Joseph get hot, they could have the Spartans on upset alert in Round 2.
When Josh Schertz left for Saint Louis and took Robbie Avila with him, Drake turned to Ben McCollum, who built a D2 powerhouse at Northwest Missouri State. McCollum brought plenty of D2 talent with him, and it didn’t take long for those players to assimilate to the D1 level. McCollum’s point guard, Bennett Stirtz immediately blossomed into the Missouri Valley Player of the Year averaging 19.1 points, 5.7 assists, and 4.4 rebounds with 49/39/80 shooting splits.
The Bulldogs landed a No. 11 seed in the West Region and are a nightmare first-round matchup for Missouri. The Tigers are one of the best stories in college basketball, undergoing a total transformation in their second season under Dennis Gates. Knockdown shooter Caleb Grill leads a high-powered offensive attack, but Mizzou will be frustrated by Drake’s infuriating methodical pace and relentless aggression on the offensive boards.
The Bulldogs steal extra possessions with a 96th-percentile offensive rebounding rate, which will give Mizzou problems, and if they get through the first round, they’ll be a tough team to prepare for with a quick turnaround. Texas Tech and JT Toppin likely await in the second round, but keep an eye on Drake to sneak through to the Sweet 16.
In their first year eligible for the big dance, the UCSD Tritons punched their ticket with a Big West title. Now, the Tritons and Big West Player of the Year Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones have a first-round matchup against Michigan, the Big Ten champs, and will be a popular 12-over-5 upset pick.
UCSD shoots the ball incredibly well, knocking down 36.5% of their nearly 30 three-point attempts a game, but the reason that Tritons could knock off the Wolverines and make a run to the second weekend is the way value the ball. UCSD has the best turnover margin in the country at +7.2, a full possession better than second-place Merrimack, and nearly two better than the second-closest team in the tournament field, Marquette. Head coach Eric Olen will have his team swarming Michigan’s questionable backcourt and the best way to pull an upset is to take the ball away, which Michigan has let teams do all year.
After limping to the finish line in the regular season, Dusty May recalibrated for a Big Ten Tournament run, and his lead guard Tre Donaldson played exceptionally well in Indianapolis. However, the Wolverines are still built through the frontcourt with Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, which is not the best recipe to win in March.