Bracketology 2024: Latest Bubble Watch of key teams in late February

Villanova (14-10) (NET: 35)
3-6 (Q1), 5-2 (Q2), 2-3 (Q3), 4-0 (Q4)

When the Wildcats won the Battle 4 Atlantis, they claimed Quad 1 wins over Texas Tech and North Carolina that seemed to get their resume started off hot. They added a road win at Creighton in late December, though 2024 has been less kind in the way of big wins.

Brutality is how you describe their nonconference slate, as Villanova lost Quad 3 contests to Penn, Saint Joseph’s, and Drexel, each being Big 5 rivals. Two double-digit losses against St. John’s are the blackest eye on their Big East slate, though nothing quite compares to those Philly losses.

Frankly, when you have those kinds of performances against Quad 3 you’re going to need to offset that. Villanova has won just three times in the last month, lacking a Quad 1 win for the last two months. Looking ahead, there are four more Quad 1 opportunities on the schedule and Villanova might need to win at least two of them to secure their place in the Big Dance, even with a decent NET.

Virginia (20-7) (NET: 50)
2-4 (Q1), 5-2 (Q2), 7-1 (Q3), 6-0 (Q4)

Obviously, the Cavaliers would’ve wished for better wins, though they do have Quad 1 victories over Florida and Clemson, beating the Tigers on the road earlier this month. They’ve racked up the Quad 2 wins in ACC play, surviving Wake Forest and a few other squads.

When the Cavaliers lose, they lose big, and the losses really tank this resume. A 22-point road loss at Notre Dame remains Quad 3. The team lost by double-digits at home to Pittsburgh last week. What really put them back on the bubble was Monday’s 34-point road loss against rival Virginia Tech.

These Cavaliers have twenty wins and have proven that they can win games, but when things go wrong it gets ugly fast. Their NET has taken some major hits this season and Monday’s performance certainly didn’t help with that. They have a major chance at a bounce back this weekend against North Carolina.