2011 Final Four Predictions: Butler Bulldogs vs. VCU Rams

Our focus earlier was on the Kentucky/UConn matchup, but now it’s time to turn our attention to what is probably the most surprising Final Four matchup in the history of college basketball.

Think about that. The most surprising Final Four matchup in the history of college basketball. I mean, wow. Just wow.

Let’s start with Butler. We all remember the improbable run they made last year to get to the national championship, where they lost a heartbreaker to Duke.

Now, after the game ended on that Monday night, how many of you thought we’d be seeing this Butler team back in the Final Four against this year? I know I sure didn’t. We all kind of brushed it off as one of those Cinderella-type runs that we’ve seen in previous tournaments, expect that this particular Cinderella had managed to make it all the way to the title game.

Well, forget about the word “underdog” with this team in 2011. Everyone knows who they are now, and to make a second straight trip to the Final Four from outside a power conference is pretty remarkable.

But ya know, as unlikely as Butler’s run back here is, they’ve somehow been topped this year by Shaka Smart and the VCU Rams.

The entire theme of the afternoon on Selection Sunday was about how teams like Colorado and Virginia Tech got snubbed, while the likes of UAB and VCU were given bids that they did not deserve. Jay Bilas and Dick Vitale were not too happy, that’s for sure.

But just like them, I didn’t think VCU deserved a bid. I thought UAB was the worst choice of the two, but still, there was simply no way VCU should be in over a solid power conference team like Colorado. I mean, c’mon! There’s no way VCU was better than Colorado or Virginia Tech or Alabama! And then we found out that they were.

It’s not just the fact that the Rams have made it to Houston. It’s the way that they’ve made it to Houston. Beat a PAC-10 team by double digits? Check. Beat a Big East team by double digits? Check. Beat a Big Ten team by double digits? Check. Beat an ACC team? Check. Beat a Big 12 team that had hovered around #1 and #2 in the rankings this season by double digits? Check.

It’s simply one of the most impressive runs in the history of this tournament. But this team has more on their mind than just stopping with a Final Four appearance. They want to win it all.

People say this is a terrible matchup because it’s a ratings killer and no one wants to see two mid-majors play for a right to be in the championship game on Monday.

Well guess what? Screw the ratings and screw all this mid-major talk.

I’m a college basketball fan. Not a TV network ratings fan. The only thing that makes these two teams different is the name on their jersey. They aren’t the traditional powers that we’ve come to expect in this spot like Duke or North Carolina or Kentucky. But don’t doubt for one minute that these teams haven’t earned this. They survived and advanced. And now they get the shot that they’ve earned.

As for the matchup itself, once again, it’s all about style. VCU has proven that they can impose their will on even the best of teams, and their style is not something that can be easily replicated in practice. Brad Stevens is going to have tough time getting his players to predict exactly what’s going to happen once the pressure comes.

However, defending VCU is also a big concern. Their three-point shooting has just been phenomenal in this tournament, and that’s a big reason why they are where they are. But as we know, the three point shot can be fleeting at times. If it’s not there, then you have to find others way to make something happen offensively.

Jamie Skeen and Bradford Burgess have the ability to score any way they want to though, and they are clearly the primary targets for Butler defensively. And even if his shot isn’t going down, Joey Rodriguez can find ways to score and gets his teammates open for quality shots.

Offensively for Butler, they have to be able to slow the game down and control tempo. I don’t think they have enough weapons offensively to be able to win a game in the 80’s against this VCU team. They will need to work the shot clock and make VCU work every trip down on defense. It’s hard to do that given the amount of pressure that VCU applies, but they have to take what’s there when it’s given to them, or else just run the offense and make this a halfcourt game.

The experience and leadership of Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard will go a long way in adjusting to this type of style. Those two guys have obviously used what they learned from last year’s tournament to get them back here, and they’ve seen anything and everything be thrown at them. They keep finding ways to win no matter the situation though.

But again, VCU has been able to make teams play their way thus far in the tournament, and at this point, there’s no reason to believe that they can’t do the same thing to Butler.

Before the Kansas/VCU game tipped off on Sunday, I thought it might be Butler’s destiny to make a return trip to the national championship and get their revenge. Seriously, how good a story would that be?

But somehow, someway, the Rams beat Kansas and changed everything. We all thought the run was over on Sunday. Well, I’m not going to make that same mistake again.

These guys are on too big of a roll right now to stop here. They’re going to get a shot to win the whole thing.

Prediction: VCU 74, Butler 71

My semifinal predictions are set. Be sure to check out my thoughts on the other national semifinal between Kentucky and UConn to see who I’ve got meeting VCU in the title game.

Who are you picking to win this game?

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