Bracketology: The projected field headed into conference tournament season

Feb 16, 2017; Nashville, TN, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores forward Luke Kornet (3) and teammate Commodores guard Riley LaChance (13) react after defeating the Texas A&M Aggies during the second half at Memorial Gymnasium. Vanderbilt won 72-67. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports /

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Feb 25, 2017; Spokane, WA, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs bench looks up at the video board during the intros before a game against the Brigham Young Cougars at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports /

The Projected Field (Updated through February 26th)

1 Villanova
16 Mount St. Mary’s/UC Irvine

8 Miami
9 Michigan

4 Florida State
13 Princeton

5 Minnesota
12 California/Rhode Island

6 St. Mary’s
11 Providence

3 Arizona
14 Belmont

7 Wisconsin
10 Middle Tennessee

2 Kentucky
15 Bucknell

Kansas 1
Texas Southern/New Orleans 16

Xavier 8
Northwestern 9

Purdue 4
Monmouth 13

Virginia 5
Texas-Arlington 12

Oklahoma State 6
USC 11

Butler 3
NC-Asheville 14

South Carolina 7
Seton Hall 10

Louisville 2
Florida Gulf Coast 15

1 Gonzaga
16 North Carolina Central

8 VCU
9 Michigan State

4 Duke
13 Valparaiso

5 Cincinnati
12 NC-Wilmington

6 Creighton
11 Illinois State

3 Florida
14 East Tennessee State

7 Iowa State
10 Wichita State

2 Oregon
15 North Dakota State

North Carolina 1
North Dakota 16

Maryland 8
Virginia Tech 9

West Virginia 4
Vermont 13

Notre Dame 5
Nevada 12

SMU 6
Vanderbilt/Marquette 11

UCLA 3
Akron 14

Dayton 7
Arkansas 10

Baylor 2
CSU Bakersfield 15

From Friday to Monday, the biggest development in Bracketology was because of Gonzaga’s first loss of the season. On Saturday night, the Bulldogs blew a 16-point lead in a loss to BYU, which has opened up for debate where Gonzaga should be seeded. To me, a 29-1 team with wins over Florida, Arizona, St. Mary’s (2x), and Iowa State is still worthy of a one seed, and that is exactly where they stand in the bracket above.

The other development has come in UCLA and Butler. Both four seeds a week ago, the Bruins and Bulldogs used big weeks to launch themselves up the three line. These teams are definitely on an upward trend and could even find a way to the two line by the end of the year.

As for teams trending downwards, those would be Xavier, Wisconsin, and Virginia. With rough stretches occurring for each team, they have all fallen down multiple seed lines. Xavier, despite a very high SOS and RPI, are sitting as an eight seed, while Wisconsin and Virginia have dropped to the seven and five lines, respectively. However, each of the teams are seemingly locks for the tournament, unlike the teams on the next slide.

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