Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing Big Dance odds in mid-February

9 of 9

FULLERTON, CA – NOVEMBER 23: Head coach Randy Bennett of the St. Mary’s Gaels talks to his team during a time out in the game against the Harvard Crimson at the Titan Gym on November 23, 2017 in Fullerton, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

Other teams to watch

Key in the lock: Rhode Island, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

Some perspiration: Nevada

Add more deodorant: Boise State, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, St. Bonaventure

Rhode Island Rams: 19-3 (11-0)

RPI: 5 KenPom: 32 BPI: 26 Sagarin: 33

G1: 2-3 G2: 4-0 G3: 6-0 G4: 7-0

Rhode Island has been dominant so far this season. They have beaten up on just about every opponent they have faced in the Atlantic 10. It is clear that this team is worthy of an NCAA Tournament bid.

Rhode Island may not be on TV often but they are the kind of team that you should watch at least once before filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket. While those in your pool look at team names and pick Rhody to lose in the first round, you can put trust in this team as a second-weekend squad. Current Bracketology position: No. 4 seed.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies:

RPI: 47 KenPom: 66 BPI: 56 Sagarin: 59

G1: 3-2 G2: 2-2 G3: 4-2 G4: 8-0

St. Bonaventure is the only other team from the Atlantic 10 with a shot at an at-large bid. After getting off to a brutal 2-4 start in conference play, the Bonnies have dominated as of late. They are currently riding a five-game winning streak and look unstoppable. With only one matchup against Rhode Island coming up (at home), St. Bonaventure will need that win.

The team has a decent paper resume and have been passing the eye test as of late. It is going to take some luck for the Bonnies to reach the dance but I am not going to rule it out just yet. Current Bracketology position: Out.

Gonzaga Bulldogs: 22-4 (12-1)

RPI: 49 KenPom: 9 BPI: 11 Sagarin: 10

G1: 4-3 G2: 0-1 G3: 7-0 G4: 11-0

St. Mary’s Gaels: 24-2 (13-0)

RPI: 28 KenPom: 14 BPI: 16 Sagarin: 16

G1: 1-0 G2: 2-1 G3: 11-1 G4: 10-0

Year in and year out, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga are NCAA Tournament teams for the West Coast Conference. That is no different this year. The squads have fairly similar resumes overall but St. Mary’s currently holds the head-to-head advantage. With this being said, there is still at least one more matchup coming between the two teams. Both of these teams are bound to hear their name called on Selection Sunday and both have second-weekend potential. Current Bracketology position: No. 7 seed for Gonzaga. No. 6 seed for St. Mary’s.

Nevada Wolf Pack: 20-5 (9-2)

RPI: 14 KenPom: 21 BPI: 27 Sagarin: 43

G1: 1-3 G2: 5-0 G3: 10-2 G4: 4-0

Nevada lost to UNLV in their last game but they are still the best team in the Mountain West. They have an excellent record and rank fairly high in most metrics. The key thing for Nevada moving forward is avoiding the 8/9 matchup. They seem to be right in that area right now in terms of seeding and they will want to do everything they can get to a No. 7 seed or better in the coming weeks. Current Bracketology position: No. 7 seeed.

Boise State Broncos: 20-4 (10-2)

RPI: 32 KenPom: 51 BPI: 55 Sagarin: 55

G1: 0-3 G2: 5-1 G3: 4-0 G4: 10-0

If the Mountain West is going to be a multi-bid league, you can bet that Boise State will be that second team. Chandler Hutchison and company are playing excellent basketball but the team is missing a Group 1 win. Without a Group 1 win, the team is a step behind several of the other bubble teams in the nation. Yet, it is hard to find a team that has been more effective than Boise State in Group 2 matchups. With a home matchup against Nevada coming up, Boise State can add their first Group 1 win and shoot up the rankings soon. Current Bracketology position: Out.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 17-7 (9-2)

RPI: 56 KenPom: 59 BPI: 68 Sagarin: 84

G1: 1-2 G2: 3-0 G3: 3-5 G4: 9-0

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: 19-5 (11-1)

RPI: 29 KenPom: 45 BPI: 44 Sagarin: 57

G1: 1-3 G2: 4-1 G3: 5-1 G4: 8-0

One of these teams is bound to win the Conference USA tournament championship. Whoever does that will end up with the automatic bid but the other team should be in consideration for an at-large bid. It might seem odd to be talking about the CUSA as a two-bid league but the league is worthy of it. Middle Tennessee’s Nick King is a name that you are going to want to know as the season continues while Western Kentucky’s balanced offensive attack makes them dangerous. Current Bracketology position: Auto-bid only

New Mexico State Aggies: 21-3 (8-1)

RPI: 48 KenPom: 35 BPI: 57 Sagarin: 54

G1: 1-2 G2: 0-0 G3: 7-1 G4: 10-0

To me, New Mexico State is one of the most underrated mid-major teams in the nation. The Aggies have resume rankings that are more than comparable to the bubble teams of the SEC and ACC and that should be enough to have them in consideration for an at-large bid. I would also argue that I do not think any of the bubble teams from the major conferences would go 21-3 with New Mexico State’s schedule.

The Aggies have played far from the toughest schedule in the country but it is not easy to have such a strong record. Two of New Mexico State’s losses (St. Mary’s and USC) came to high-quality teams and they also hold a win over a tournament team in the Miami Hurricanes. If New Mexico State loses in the WAC tournament championship for their fourth loss of the season, they deserve to get an at-large bid. Current Bracketology position: Auto-bid only.

Next: Most recent Bracketology field (Week 14)

For any questions or comments on this Bubble Watch, tweet your thoughts at @BustingBrackets or @hardwiredsports (that’s me!).

Home/Bracketology