Bubble teams left and right are losing, missing out on a chance for a signature road win. But could they be setting themselves up for something big?
As conference seasons end within the next couple of weeks across the college basketball landscape. Tournament hopefuls hope to be playing their best basketball. Teams are also hoping to get into the film room and in the gym for those extra hours to polish their jump shots, work on their dribbling, and overall preparation for conference tournament season. While all teams are never trying to lose, is it better for teams to lose before heading into the NCAA tournament?
Most bubble teams do not have the luxury of losing a game in conference to a lesser opponent, as any “bad” loss, or in the latest committee lingo any loss in quadrant two or three could derail said bubble teams’ chances. The loss to the tier 3 and tier 4 teams could also cost the bubble team a crucial seed line in their conference tournament, which based on who they would play in the first round of that tournament could be devastating.
For the other teams who are the locks for an at large into the tournament, those teams also want to be playing their best basketball. These teams have a bigger margin for error, so potentially dropping a game to a lesser opponent is something that these teams can afford. No coach or team are deliberately going to try and lose a game, but by losing can be advantageous not just to the sure-fire tournament teams, but to everyone including the bubble teams.
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By losing, a team can evaluate those items that caused them to lose the game and provide extra emphasis on those items or determine new ways to hide those items on the floor. Bubble teams usually have a few more flaws than the locks for a tournament berth. So, for the bubble teams it is as simple as identifying the weak points of the game and either providing extra emphasis on them or finding a way to mask those deficiencies enough to win a game. Usually these come down to free throw shooting and turnover margin.
Teams on the bubble don’t have major deficiencies that they have to work around, otherwise they would not be on the bubble, the teams that have major deficiencies usually do not win enough games to be considered for bubble consideration. For these teams, every single game is a battle and often losing a game can help these teams clear their head and get a fresh start going into the conference tournament. A win over a top team in the conference tournament could be the difference between your bubble lives and a bid to the NCAA tournament.
The teams who are safely in the tournament currently, by losing a game helps those teams keep a level head going into the tournament. It helps those teams realize that they still need to play up to their potential to beat anyone. It is so hard for even the blue blood programs to walk onto the floor and win any game. Occasionally, a top team needs to be humbled enough to realize that they still must play a full game to beat anyone especially come the NCAA tournament and conference tournament time, because they are going to get everyone’s best shot.
Some of the tournament team locks could view a loss in a conference tournament as a chance to get fully healthy and rested before the gauntlet that the NCAA tournament can bring. Many coaches after a loss before heading into the NCAA tournament will keep the workouts light and just do some light shooting. Players will do some shooting and try to stay off their feet, so they can be fully healthy and engaged when Selection Sunday comes.
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Teams will want to be on their games come March, so working out any kinks you have and potentially being able to clear your head after a loss, could be a good thing for all teams in the tournament talks. Certain teams have a little more wiggle room on the matter than others, and other teams need to tweak a few things about their team. Through all this the fans and teams are due for potentially one of the most exciting championship weeks and NCAA tournaments in recent memory.