March Madness: Most-likely upsets to watch for on each seed line

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - JANUARY 04: Butler Bulldogs fans celebrate as they storm the floor after the game against the Villanova Wildcats at Hinkle Fieldhouse on January 4, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Butler defeated the No. 1 ranked Wildcats 66-58. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

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LAS VEGAS, NV – MARCH 10: Lofton /

(12) New Mexico State over (5) Clemson

This game should be a rock fight. Both squads are excellent on the defensive end of the floor and that sets up for a low-scoring and close matchup. Here are some numbers on why this will be a low-scoring game (all stats found via KenPom and Sports-Reference):

Clemson’s tempo rating is 297th in the nation
New Mexico State’s tempo ranks 177th
Clemson’s adjusted defensive efficiency is ranked eighth
New Mexico State’s adjusted defensive efficiency is ranked 15th
Clemson opponents have scored over 80 points just three times this season
New Mexico State opponents have scored over 80 points just twice.

This slow pace suits the underdog in this matchup. When games are played at a slow pace, a five-point lead can seem like 10 points. However, it really is just five points, and back-to-back 3-pointers can put the team that was trailing in front.

For New Mexico State, they have the go-to-guy that can take over a close game down the stretch. Assuming their defense keeps things close as it has all season, Zach Lofton can go get his own bucket. On 45.3% shooting from the field (38.2% from three), Lofton is putting up 19.7 points per game this season. When it comes to crunch time, he will have the ball in his hands and it will be up to him to take down the No. 5-seeded Clemson Tigers.

Runner-Up: South Dakota State over Ohio State

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